MES / ES Weekend Plan Jan 26

As we press higher, do note that we are currently above January value making anything above 6060’s premium on the monthly. That does not mean to start bearish bias, but to rather be cautious of potential pullbacks. We’ve had 2 weeks of upward momentum reaching new ATH on ES and SPY. QQQ and DIA so far lacking in that department which adds to concerns. Would also note that this week and Dec FOMC week profiles has POC relatively the same location - perhaps exits for major swing longs up here. Again nothing "bearish" in larger context, but day to day, we may be a tad stretched.

Thursday’s end of day spike up was on the ridiculous side, therefore longs on Friday, in my opinion, were higher risk. Over night session with the Bank of Japan data release saw a look above and fail of that spike which carried down into RTH. RTH also swept that over night high, but by falling back into the spike added to the bearish bias for the day. A single print at 6143.25-6144.5 was also made. We did have a spike down attempt, although only a few ticks; however, buyers stepped in to move us back above 6128-30 and closing the week just above weekly POC. In general, buyers have nothing to worry about until we explore back into last Tuesday’s range (6043.5-6087.5) and accept lower.

For this week, I will use Friday’s range as a guide. Friday’s low sits just above Thursday and Wednesday VAL. Friday’s high just above Thursday spike top along with an excess from Friday.

Breaking lower, should see the RTH poor low at 6111.25 including cleaning up the remaining single print from Dec FOMC 6107.5-6111. Further weakness would target the Dec POC at 6096.25 and finally the gap fill at 6087.50 where I do expect buyers to step in. I would start to fish for longs down here, but would also focus on 6071-75 as this would include Tuesday’s IBH breakout at 6072. Acceptance lower, will target Tuesday's excess low at 6043.50. If buyers don't step in here to save it, The gap fill at 6004 and single prints 6005.25-6012.75 come into play.

Frankly anything 6087-6058 should be of focus. Will need to see a reversal structure form for more confidence as further moving through Tuesday’s value can occur. But in this area we have gap fill, Friday 100% extension, last Tuesday POC, Dec FOMC Low, last Tuesday IBH breakout, last week VAL, and Jan VAL.

If we open Sunday higher and move above Friday’s VAL (6133-35), I would target the Jan 23 spike base at 6139.25 followed by the single print 6143.25-6144.50. Acceptance higher will then target Friday’s POC ~6149 and the spike top 6153.75. Anything higher will need NQ, YM, and RTY to step up. I think NQ especially needs to be supportive. Higher targets on ES would be the 50% extension of Friday’s range 6180’s along with 6200-10 as the 100% extension where the weekly expected high resides.

Potential Look above and fail of Friday’s high can be a valid short just as a look below of Friday’s low can be a valid long. If we near Friday’s high, pay attention to the other products if they are also being supportive or not. If 6128-30 starts to become resistance, the large spike on Jan 23 becomes more serious and further represents a failed breakout.

Continue to have the following: Jan 13 swing low vwap, Dec FOMC vwap, and Sept FOMC vwap as these will continue to catch up to price.
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