2024-10-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - oil
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
oil - Continues to be wild. Got stopped out too many times today and wanted to hurt myself. Huge tails on daily bars above and today a 350 (5%) tick ripper. Bulls just melted through the bear trend line. Can absolutely be a bull trap and we see another giant pullback but for now I would not short it. If anything, I am not touching this for couple of day I think.
comment: Market was very two sided until the spike above 72.20 happened. Market also did not accomplish anything after that spike, which leaves us not that much smarter going into tomorrow. It could very well see a big pullback or even proving to be a bull trap near the bear trend line.
current market cycle: trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart. If bulls continue above 74, it’s likely a new bull trend and could get us to 78.
key levels: 66 - 74
bull case: Bulls let it drop below 67 and still managed to rip 300 ticks higher. Wild times currently. If you are a bull and want to buy this, you need really wide stops or wait for insane pullbacks. Not easy to trade. Bulls want a breakout above the bear trend line and hit 75. Above 75 is most likely no resistance until 77. Since the pullbacks are so deep, I doubt there are many bulls who want to buy 74 in hopes of breaking the trend line but I am open for surprises.
Invalidation is below 70.4.
bear case: Bears have the do or die moment at 74. Defend the bear trend or give up until we hit the next big bear trend line around 78. Given the erratic moves, bears are alive and well, mostly anyway. Anything below 71 would be a huge win for the bears tomorrow. Daily 20 ema is also flat, decreases the chance for the bulls.
Invalidation is above 74.2.
short term: Neutral around 74. Bearish below 73 for 70 again. If bulls can continue above 74.2, we could see more giving up by the bears and another strong move to 76 or 78. Very low probability though.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Not going there today. You can’t expect this spike. Don’t fool yourself.
tl;dr
oil - Continues to be wild. Got stopped out too many times today and wanted to hurt myself. Huge tails on daily bars above and today a 350 (5%) tick ripper. Bulls just melted through the bear trend line. Can absolutely be a bull trap and we see another giant pullback but for now I would not short it. If anything, I am not touching this for couple of day I think.
comment: Market was very two sided until the spike above 72.20 happened. Market also did not accomplish anything after that spike, which leaves us not that much smarter going into tomorrow. It could very well see a big pullback or even proving to be a bull trap near the bear trend line.
current market cycle: trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart. If bulls continue above 74, it’s likely a new bull trend and could get us to 78.
key levels: 66 - 74
bull case: Bulls let it drop below 67 and still managed to rip 300 ticks higher. Wild times currently. If you are a bull and want to buy this, you need really wide stops or wait for insane pullbacks. Not easy to trade. Bulls want a breakout above the bear trend line and hit 75. Above 75 is most likely no resistance until 77. Since the pullbacks are so deep, I doubt there are many bulls who want to buy 74 in hopes of breaking the trend line but I am open for surprises.
Invalidation is below 70.4.
bear case: Bears have the do or die moment at 74. Defend the bear trend or give up until we hit the next big bear trend line around 78. Given the erratic moves, bears are alive and well, mostly anyway. Anything below 71 would be a huge win for the bears tomorrow. Daily 20 ema is also flat, decreases the chance for the bulls.
Invalidation is above 74.2.
short term: Neutral around 74. Bearish below 73 for 70 again. If bulls can continue above 74.2, we could see more giving up by the bears and another strong move to 76 or 78. Very low probability though.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Not going there today. You can’t expect this spike. Don’t fool yourself.
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.