#202423 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oil
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
wti crude oil futures
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls rejected 76 area 4 times now. At some point one side will concede and we see a bigger move. Patience pays. Bulls want retest of the daily 20ema and bear channel next (78.8). Afterwards break above the bear channel. Bears had two clear pushes down and now a tripple bottom. I think they will give up and market trades back up again. But I wait for clear confirmation on this.
comment: Here is also my comment from last week “Market in total balance 76 - 80. Buy low and sell high. Right now I prefer a spike below to around 75 which bulls gladly buy and we then trade back to 83 over the next weeks. Invalid below 74.”
Nothing changed in Oil. Bulls got a very small spike above 80 which was rejected again and we are 77 again. Play the range until we get a breakout with follow through. One funny “coincidence” is that the 50% pull-back from the 2021 low to the 2022 high, is about 78.3 and now guess where the freaking 50% pb of this trading range is. Market is always giving some hints. Learn to spot them.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 76 - 80
bull case: Ascending triangle with around 4 highs and 4 lows. Market is in breakout mode and will probably test lower or higher prices next. I have absolutely no idea where we will break out first so just do the high probability thing here, buy low and sell high when you see good signal bars. Bulls see this as the lows of this trading range and want to reverse here for at least 80 again.
Invalidation is below 67.
bear case: Bears sold 80 again and will probably take profits here at 77 or try to get 76 again. If they get a breakout below, we will probably test 75, which is a price I thought we would test for 5-7 weeks now. It’s a bad sell here at 77 for bears so best they can get is sideways movement.
Invalidation is above 80.5.
outlook last week: “Kinda neutral 76 - 80. Clear trading range with tails above and below. Market in balance. R:R here is with the bulls for test of daily 20ema at 78.6 again.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 77.72 and now we are at 76.99. High of the week was 80.62 and I said we will probably at least hit the daily ema again. That was a perfect outlook for at least 90 ticks but could have held til 80 or higher. 80 Would have been 228 ticks. Hope you made some.
short term: R:R is on the bull side here at the bottom of this range. I wait for confirmation on Monday before going long for 80 again. Below 76 we could get to 75 but that would require strong momentum for me to go short down here.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 83 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle and now we test the lower trend line again. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
Update: removed bull flag/bear trend, whatever you want to call it. It’s the same and you trade it the same. Added expanding triangle trend lines
wti crude oil futures
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls rejected 76 area 4 times now. At some point one side will concede and we see a bigger move. Patience pays. Bulls want retest of the daily 20ema and bear channel next (78.8). Afterwards break above the bear channel. Bears had two clear pushes down and now a tripple bottom. I think they will give up and market trades back up again. But I wait for clear confirmation on this.
comment: Here is also my comment from last week “Market in total balance 76 - 80. Buy low and sell high. Right now I prefer a spike below to around 75 which bulls gladly buy and we then trade back to 83 over the next weeks. Invalid below 74.”
Nothing changed in Oil. Bulls got a very small spike above 80 which was rejected again and we are 77 again. Play the range until we get a breakout with follow through. One funny “coincidence” is that the 50% pull-back from the 2021 low to the 2022 high, is about 78.3 and now guess where the freaking 50% pb of this trading range is. Market is always giving some hints. Learn to spot them.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 76 - 80
bull case: Ascending triangle with around 4 highs and 4 lows. Market is in breakout mode and will probably test lower or higher prices next. I have absolutely no idea where we will break out first so just do the high probability thing here, buy low and sell high when you see good signal bars. Bulls see this as the lows of this trading range and want to reverse here for at least 80 again.
Invalidation is below 67.
bear case: Bears sold 80 again and will probably take profits here at 77 or try to get 76 again. If they get a breakout below, we will probably test 75, which is a price I thought we would test for 5-7 weeks now. It’s a bad sell here at 77 for bears so best they can get is sideways movement.
Invalidation is above 80.5.
outlook last week: “Kinda neutral 76 - 80. Clear trading range with tails above and below. Market in balance. R:R here is with the bulls for test of daily 20ema at 78.6 again.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 77.72 and now we are at 76.99. High of the week was 80.62 and I said we will probably at least hit the daily ema again. That was a perfect outlook for at least 90 ticks but could have held til 80 or higher. 80 Would have been 228 ticks. Hope you made some.
short term: R:R is on the bull side here at the bottom of this range. I wait for confirmation on Monday before going long for 80 again. Below 76 we could get to 75 but that would require strong momentum for me to go short down here.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 83 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle and now we test the lower trend line again. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
Update: removed bull flag/bear trend, whatever you want to call it. It’s the same and you trade it the same. Added expanding triangle trend lines
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