MMK
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MMK: Stock price will repeat the 2nd quarter

Against the backdrop of strong fin. indicators of the 3rd quarter
Key factors and catalysts
  • Annual forward dividend approximate to 40% in H2 2021
  • Should significantly increase production up to 30%
  • Cost less than competitors in one sector on P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples
  • Beneficiary of commodity supercycle 2021
  • Most likely going to be included in the MSCI Russia index
  • The desire of the main shareholder to increase free-float by 2%, which gives an increase in FIF by 0.5 and weight in the MSCI index
  • Main beneficiary from the transition from duties to MET tax from the beginning of 2022
  • Main beneficiary from the decline in world prices for iron ore and high prices for hot-rolled steel
  • Negative debt load
  • Making every effort to be ESG friendly
  • An unprecedented openness and disclosure of information to investors
  • It is a super clear and transparent business with a double-digit dividend history


We calculate financial indicators for the 3rd quarter of 2021
  • Revenue - $ 3302.6 million to increase by 1.5% q / q (3370 * 980)
  • EBITDA - $ 1,380.7 million decrease by 3.8% q/q including the effect of duties $ 60 million (3,370 * 427.5-60000)
  • Profit - $ 1017 million (1380.7-125) * (1-0.19)
  • Total NWC - a decrease by $ 259 million due to a significant decrease in world prices for iron ore and a decrease in prices for finished products due to the introduction of temporary duties on inventories (1425 * (0.4 * 0.33 + 0.20 * 0.25))
  • FCF - $ 1,045 million, an increase of 92% q/q (EBITDA-Change in PSC-CAPEX-Taxes = 1380.7 + 259-350-245)
  • Dividend - $0.11. an increase of 222% taking into account compensation over a cappex ((1045 + 350-175) / 11174.33) or 9.4% in quarter
Economic Cycles

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