LUNA offers 60% upside and 50% downside
Hear me out. LUNA is at an inflection point and with the crypto market not showing any signs of strength right now, it's hard to be a bull. One must be open to 2 opposing scenarios and have a plan for both directions.
The Bull case:
- LUNA is holding its 200 day MA.
- We have a nice 5 wave pattern on the downside.
- We've made a 786 retracement (and more) off the move from $35 to the ATH.
- Upcoming MACD crossover on the Daily
- RSI oversold on the Daily
- Willy oversold on the Daily
- Even if you are a Bear (I am a Bear), a relief rally based on pure technicals is most likely.
The Bear case:
- BTC has room for downside - it can still go as low as 20k support which many are calling for.
- LUNA has had FUD news as of late (I tend to be a chart purist but you can't ignore this one) - there are some major concerns around the staking and returns for LUNA / TERRA in the down market. This could lead to a panic selloff.
- We haven't quite touched the 618 retracement, and the chart leaves much room to what would be a major support level around $22.
- The 786 retracement lines up with the $22 range noted.
- The 1.618 extension of the bear move from the top lines up on top of that 786 retracement. One cannot ignore confluence.
My hypothesis:
- We have a chance to rally to $90, before correcting all the way to $22. Be very careful out there!!
What am I doing?:
- I've entered a LUNA long, which I already sold and made profit on, and I'm currently filling up another LUNA long. STOP IS TIGHT! Just under the recent low below $46.50. I am trading on margin so cannot afford to put my stop below the low of $43. That's just personal discretion and being willing to re assess if I should re-enter if the stop hits. Taking profits earlier helps me a lot if a stop hits to minimize or even eliminate my downside risk.
The Bull case:
- LUNA is holding its 200 day MA.
- We have a nice 5 wave pattern on the downside.
- We've made a 786 retracement (and more) off the move from $35 to the ATH.
- Upcoming MACD crossover on the Daily
- RSI oversold on the Daily
- Willy oversold on the Daily
- Even if you are a Bear (I am a Bear), a relief rally based on pure technicals is most likely.
The Bear case:
- BTC has room for downside - it can still go as low as 20k support which many are calling for.
- LUNA has had FUD news as of late (I tend to be a chart purist but you can't ignore this one) - there are some major concerns around the staking and returns for LUNA / TERRA in the down market. This could lead to a panic selloff.
- We haven't quite touched the 618 retracement, and the chart leaves much room to what would be a major support level around $22.
- The 786 retracement lines up with the $22 range noted.
- The 1.618 extension of the bear move from the top lines up on top of that 786 retracement. One cannot ignore confluence.
My hypothesis:
- We have a chance to rally to $90, before correcting all the way to $22. Be very careful out there!!
What am I doing?:
- I've entered a LUNA long, which I already sold and made profit on, and I'm currently filling up another LUNA long. STOP IS TIGHT! Just under the recent low below $46.50. I am trading on margin so cannot afford to put my stop below the low of $43. That's just personal discretion and being willing to re assess if I should re-enter if the stop hits. Taking profits earlier helps me a lot if a stop hits to minimize or even eliminate my downside risk.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.