Big resistance at $46 (today) and $33 (we broke through this May 2025).
Now need to see if either:
(a) $33 will be support -- we drop down 25-30% to re-test and bounce off this before going higher
OR
(b) $46 resistance gets broken and becomes new support, to what is effectively all-time-highs (ignoring pre-2006 levels)
Why is Up most likely?
> We established higher lows in 2015, 2020, 2023 (3 points makes a trend, not a line)
> Revenue is increasing >10%/year. Not great, but not bad. Point is, it's going up!
What's the downside on KTOS?
> $10/share is proper support if $33 breaks --> High Risk/Reward
My plan for investing:
> Wait for $35/share (25% decline from today). See if we back-test and can confirm support. Could enter a small position here with a limit order.
> If we break out >$50 from here, I'd be convinced I've missed the run up from $10 in December 2022. Don't need to touch it until something changes
Why I don't like KTOS as much as AVAV
> KTOS revenue growth rate is slower
> KTOS profit margins are lower
> KTOS has higher US and higher US Government exposure (AVAV more diversified)
> KTOS has $280M debt and $260M cash on $1.15B annual revenue and $0-50M annual cash flow;
AVAV has $65M debt and $40M cash on $820M revenue* and $15-100M annual cash flow
*Pre-acquisitions
I need to see proven ability to either (ideally both): grow revenue faster, achieve higher margins or cash flow from operations. AVAV has done this in the last year.
Now need to see if either:
(a) $33 will be support -- we drop down 25-30% to re-test and bounce off this before going higher
OR
(b) $46 resistance gets broken and becomes new support, to what is effectively all-time-highs (ignoring pre-2006 levels)
Why is Up most likely?
> We established higher lows in 2015, 2020, 2023 (3 points makes a trend, not a line)
> Revenue is increasing >10%/year. Not great, but not bad. Point is, it's going up!
What's the downside on KTOS?
> $10/share is proper support if $33 breaks --> High Risk/Reward
My plan for investing:
> Wait for $35/share (25% decline from today). See if we back-test and can confirm support. Could enter a small position here with a limit order.
> If we break out >$50 from here, I'd be convinced I've missed the run up from $10 in December 2022. Don't need to touch it until something changes
Why I don't like KTOS as much as AVAV
> KTOS revenue growth rate is slower
> KTOS profit margins are lower
> KTOS has higher US and higher US Government exposure (AVAV more diversified)
> KTOS has $280M debt and $260M cash on $1.15B annual revenue and $0-50M annual cash flow;
AVAV has $65M debt and $40M cash on $820M revenue* and $15-100M annual cash flow
*Pre-acquisitions
I need to see proven ability to either (ideally both): grow revenue faster, achieve higher margins or cash flow from operations. AVAV has done this in the last year.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.