The Jobs Market

14 Mar 2023

See how working age population leveled off ~200M and job openings up top sky rocketed. Boomers retired and died form Covid. It's not gonna recover any time soon. Population is gonna shrink along with tax receipts. Meanwhile spending will only increase. The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve have been calling it an "Unsustainable Fiscal Path" since 2018 at least. It's even the title of the Treasury's annual report. fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/unsustainable-fiscal-path.html

Only 1.7M claiming unemployment and seeking jobs for 10.8M job openings.... another 4M working gig jobs and day-trading, not interested in the full-time job market. It's a seller's market that will continue to drive wages and inflation up until the market breaks and causes a massive recession/depression. We're not gonna grow an extra 5M-9M qualified, highly experienced workers over the course of a year or 5. Those job openings are gonna close because the businesses are not doing well.

14 Mar 2023

Not

As you can see here, wages are on an exponential path, both leading and far outpacing CPI. Also notice the YoY ticked up last month.

14 Mar 2023

Not

4% is the target UE rate b/c less than that signals a recession; which in the case of 70's inflation continued for decades.