IR heads up at $95 then 100: at or near a top

21 Mar

IR continues to print new All Time Highs.
We might get a pullback here or soon.
Lets see how it reacts at this resistance.

$ 94.84- 95.14 is the immediate resistance.
$ 99.90-100.35 will be obviously difficult.
$ 73.08- 73.38 the dream long term entry.

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3 Nis

Not

Pullback under way?

Just a little dip, but perhaps start of a correction.

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Zoom IN (m15) with some notes:

Possible Bull Trap above resistance,
Pings confirm our fibs and zone as key,
so more confidence in rest of the fibs.

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Zoom in more (m5) and adding a fib on the dip (blue striped)

Looks like a decent fit, so go with it for now.

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Zoom out (m15) to look for targets

blue 2.618 should offer a little bounce
blue 4.236 is most common wave ender,
blue 5.236 next likely and is reinforced

So we have 3 targets for our first guesses.

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8 Nis

Not

Followup to last snapshot:

Bounce a little above the first support zone plotted.
Now back to chewing on our resistance again.
Looks likely to break above, see what US does on Monday.

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21 Nis

Not

Followup to last snapshot looking at 3 supports

Fell through all of them thanks to Middle East conflict.
Some little bounces at first and third plotted supports,
but a strong wave down with no signs of slowing yet.

The only clean Ping was on the Genesis fib at $90.73

And the blue strpe fib is probably no good now,
must have been a new impulse since first placed.

So retracing the previous blue stripe fib and placing a new one:

Much better fitment, and the 5.236 a possible end point.

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SUMMARY:
- Middle east conflict hurt all risk assets.
- Currently at a possible wave end point.
- Expecting a bounce for more clues.

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6 May

Not

Followup to last snap shot looking for a bounce:

We got a very nice bounce indeed, EXACTLY from the 5.236 as expected.

But ALAS Earnings

That drop from earnings eliminates our blue stripe fib due to a new impulse.
Were it not for the bad earnings, the retrace was done and ready for new highs.

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Zoom in (m1) for a look at the drop and pa since

We got a Ping on each fib to confirm both,
thick lined 13.706 is a Genesis fib at $86.64,
thin lined 16.325 is a local minor fib at $8598.

Such subsequently higher bounces on fibs could mark a bottom.
But people say to wait three days after earnings to see result.

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Zoom back out (h4)

We are on the edge of a cliff right now.
We need a small bounce to slow the fall.
If support fails, then watch each fib below.

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15 May

Not

Nice bounce EXACTLY where needed and plotted:


Zoom in (m15)

We had two entry oppotunities, for at least a 4% jump to resistance.

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Zoom in more (m1) around our "1st Target"

2 fibs in tight confluence,
a Genesis fib (from birth),
and a local golden fib below.

Both fibs confirmed relevant by Pings,
keep counting on their sisters to react.

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Zoom OUT a bit (h1) and highlighting some zones

We now have a clearly defined range,
with possible mid-support around $90.

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SUMMARY:
- Clean bounce from our support fibs
- But too early to say "dip is done" yet.
- Possible we go lower after retrace.

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31 May

Not

Impressive Recovery from the earnings dump

Hit 1st target, retested it, then hit 2nd target.
The dip from 2nd target is a bit worrisome in its vertical-ness.
But we got a little bounce on mid support as hoped around $90.

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SUMMARY:
- Earnings dump more than recovered
- Market dip took this one with the tide.
- Currently leaning towards "bottom in"

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