Comex Copper = Explosive Nifty to Unfold in 2024 ?

5 May

Disclaimer:
Trading in financial markets involves substantial risks. Consult your financial advisor before making decisions. This commentary is not a solicitation to buy or sell.

WaveTalks - Market Whispers: Can you hear them?

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Copper Outlook
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1. Setting the Stage for Explosive Moves:
- Copper is recognized as a barometer of economic growth, and its performance can provide insights into broader market movements.
- In January 2023, I predicted copper would see explosive growth in 2023-2024. This was confirmed in November 2023 when the corrective wave 2 completed in a truncated wedge pattern, providing a strong foundation for significant gains.

Comex Copper in Nov 2023 ( Explosive Wave to Unfold Next?)
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2. Rising Demand:
- Copper cathode demand reached 598,000 tonnes (81.2% of the previous year's total) by November 2023.
- Imports of copper cathode, scrap, and wire rods soared by 174%, 56%, and 13% year-on-year, respectively.
- This robust demand hints at double-digit growth in FY24. The Indian government's focus on infrastructure, clean energy, and consumer spending is expected to sustain this growth.

3. Production Challenges and Future Solutions:
- India's smelting capacity was halved due to facility closures, turning the nation from a net exporter to a significant importer.
- The upcoming Adani smelter (5 lakh tonnes capacity) and potential reopening of the Sterlite smelter in 2024 could help India reclaim its status as a net copper exporter.


Nifty / BankNifty Outlook
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1. Explosive Moves Expected:
- The Nifty index started forming a well know rising pattern around the 18,800-19,000 zone in October to November 2023, suggesting a significant move ahead. This famous pattern was rising wedge.
- This pattern was debated on WaveTalks as either an ending or leading diagonal, offering different implications for future market moves.

2. Elliott Wave Analysis Insights:
- Applying Elliott Wave Analysis gave clarity to potential market paths, allowing for strategic decisions at tops and bottoms.
- As patterns unfolded as expected for Copper, the market outlook became increasingly clear for equities as Copper is a barometer of economic growth.

3. Conclusion:
- The Indian equity markets, particularly Nifty and BankNifty, appear set for more explosive moves.
- Time will reveal how far the markets can go, but the whispers of the market suggest significant growth ahead.

Signing off from WaveTalks: Market Whispers! Can you hear them?

From WaveTalks
Abhishek