📈 Gold Parabolic Structure | Base 4 Breakout Setup | $4,000 Target
Sharing my analysis on Gold’s ongoing parabolic trend, which has followed a textbook progression of Base 1 → Base 4 since mid-2022. The price has respected a structural curved trendline, and we are currently in Base 4 consolidation — often the final pause before a blow-off rally.
Current Setup:
Gold is consolidating between $3,200 – $3,400, forming Base 4.
There is weekly bearish divergence, indicating momentum loss, but this is normal in late-stage parabolas.
I expect a retest of the $3,200 zone, near the parabolic curve support, possibly with a fakeout wick below — a common shakeout before the final rally.
Seasonality suggests the first week of July is typically bearish, which aligns with this potential retest.
Trade Plan (If Setup Confirms):
Watch for a strong bullish reversal candle near $3,200 (parabolic curve support).
Entry above the high of that bullish candle.
Stop loss just below the candle’s low.
Target: $4,000+, which aligns with typical blow-off potential (+20–25% from Base 4 breakout).
If Gold breaks and holds above $3,400, it could begin the vertical phase of the move.
Parabolic Move Concept Recap:
Base 1: Accumulation
Base 2: Confirmation
Base 3: Acceleration
Base 4: Final pause before blow-off
After Base 4, price often rallies sharply before forming a major top.
This is a high-reward but high-risk phase. Manage risk and don’t chase late entries once the move begins.
Would love to hear your thoughts and variations on this setup.
#Gold #XAUUSD #ParabolicTrend #TechnicalAnalysis #BlowOffTop #Base4
Sharing my analysis on Gold’s ongoing parabolic trend, which has followed a textbook progression of Base 1 → Base 4 since mid-2022. The price has respected a structural curved trendline, and we are currently in Base 4 consolidation — often the final pause before a blow-off rally.
Current Setup:
Gold is consolidating between $3,200 – $3,400, forming Base 4.
There is weekly bearish divergence, indicating momentum loss, but this is normal in late-stage parabolas.
I expect a retest of the $3,200 zone, near the parabolic curve support, possibly with a fakeout wick below — a common shakeout before the final rally.
Seasonality suggests the first week of July is typically bearish, which aligns with this potential retest.
Trade Plan (If Setup Confirms):
Watch for a strong bullish reversal candle near $3,200 (parabolic curve support).
Entry above the high of that bullish candle.
Stop loss just below the candle’s low.
Target: $4,000+, which aligns with typical blow-off potential (+20–25% from Base 4 breakout).
If Gold breaks and holds above $3,400, it could begin the vertical phase of the move.
Parabolic Move Concept Recap:
Base 1: Accumulation
Base 2: Confirmation
Base 3: Acceleration
Base 4: Final pause before blow-off
After Base 4, price often rallies sharply before forming a major top.
This is a high-reward but high-risk phase. Manage risk and don’t chase late entries once the move begins.
Would love to hear your thoughts and variations on this setup.
#Gold #XAUUSD #ParabolicTrend #TechnicalAnalysis #BlowOffTop #Base4
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.