GOLD - ELLIOT WAVE EXPLINATION - 15 mins

3 gün önce

Elliott Wave analysis suggests that Gold is currently in the ABC corrective phase, where:

Wave AB has been formed (possibly an impulsive or corrective leg).
Wave BC is expected to be a 5-wave down move, which indicates a likely zigzag correction (5-3-5 structure).
Target for BC = $2840 level, implying a significant downside move.
Key Considerations for This Analysis:
Wave AB Completion:

If AB is a sharp move up, BC is likely to be a deeper retracement.
If AB is corrective, BC might be more complex.
BC Wave Structure (5-Wave Down Swing):

If BC follows a 5-wave impulsive structure, it suggests a strong downward move, potentially confirming the zigzag correction.
First signs of a strong sell-off should appear in wave 1 and 3 of BC.
$2840 Target Justification:

If BC retraces 61.8% to 100% of AB, then Fibonacci projections could align with $2840.
Additional confluences from trendline support or previous wave structures should validate this.
Confirmation Points for BC:

Breaking below key support levels to confirm wave 1 of BC.
Failing to break previous AB highs would invalidate any further bullish move.
Possible Elliott Wave Count for Gold
Primary Count:
ABC Zigzag Correction

A: Up Move
B: Partial retracement
C: 5-wave impulsive decline (targeting 2840)
Alternate Count:

If Gold breaks above the current high of AB, then the count needs to be re-evaluated for a potential larger-degree bullish wave structure.

Conclusion:
If Gold follows the 5-wave down structure in BC, then the downside move is valid, and the next major target would be $2840. However, confirmation is needed from price action, trendline breakdowns, and volume patterns before fully committing to the bearish view.

3 gün önce

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Short-term Elliott Wave outlook for Gold (XAUUSD) suggests that,

The 5th Long Wave has been Completed:

This marks the end of an impulsive uptrend.
Gold is now transitioning into a corrective phase.
Current Move: 5th to A Wave in ABC Correction

Wave A is unfolding, which is expected to be a 5-wave impulsive decline.
Target: $2900, which would complete Wave A.
Expect a sharp downside move towards this level.
Volatile Zone Ahead:

Wave A to B transition is indecisive but impulsive, meaning both buyers and sellers will be active.
A to B could retrace part of A, creating whipsaws before a final C wave drop.
Key Price Levels to Watch:
Immediate Resistance: Near recent highs (~$2,940 - $2,960).
Support for A Wave Completion: Around $2,900.
If A-B reversal starts: Expect a bounce towards $2,920-$2,930 before a potential final C leg lower.
Strategy & Considerations:
Short-term traders: May look for selling opportunities on retracements if momentum aligns.
Volatility Expected: Since A-to-B is indecisive but impulsive, wide price swings are likely.
Confirmation Needed: A break below $2,900 with volume would confirm deeper downside potential.