Engaging my Selling order / #1,807.80 entry point

13 Tem 2021

Gold's general commentary: Yesterday’s session Dark Cloud Cover Bearish candlestick formation on the Hourly 4 chart's Double Top was the Technical Selling signal, today's Bond Yields remarks the Fundamental as I expect aggressive Bearish scenario early on throughout today's U.S. session. Due to the elevated Volatility on Hourly 1 chart and the upcoming Support zone on Hourly 4 chart, I am not interested in Buying Gold and will wait patiently for the next Bearish leg with my Selling order engaged. Daily chart advocates that after the #1,792.80 - #1,795.80 is breached, then #1,778.80 is the stop which will negate Buying bias on the Short-term. This is because I can't speculate if April’s Bottom will break (since it was achieved under the #2nd Highest Volumes #421.74K of the last #14 Months). The other reason why my partial Profit taking is postponed is the undesirable Volatility that is expected due to the FOMC later on which Highly affects Yields, as my position can hit Stop-loss and get Bought back (as is evident on the charts from July #5). I was carefully monitoring how Yields will end the Trading week and have an final word with #100% certainty.


Technical analysis: Gold is still on a very tight balance, contained within the Lower Low trendline on the Daily chart, and the Higher Low trendline of the Channel Up. With Hourly 4 chart regaining full Bearish status, it is more than obvious why Gold has been consolidating since the #1,812.80 High for few sessions. I am strictly following my Long-term pattern with strict Risk management which indicates that Gold will rebound considerably on current Higher Low variance but still want to test #1,800.80 psychological barrier and Resistance again after steeper fall, in order to achieve the Higher Low sequence (which has become traditional pattern at the moment). If #1,792.80 is broken, I expect #1,778.80 next. If however #1,818.80 breaks, my outlook is invalidated and Gold can peak the #1,827.80 Higher Low Upper zone. I remain Bearish, also expecting Selling pressure from Yields to break the Lower belt. Furthest extension is #1,678.80 for now, ahead of stabilization zone. Gold shows no apparent signs (besides all Selling signs) of stopping it’s Bearish direction. If you have followed my reports and read it with understanding you can see that I am heavily on the Selling side and my view has not changed since the last week, but as my estimations show, I found strong correlation of Gold with Usd-Jpy pair lately, which indicates stronger margin decline on Gold. Keep in mind that this week’s Powell’s testimony is Highly important, and will certainly have huge impact on current Price-action. Past #7 testimonies were Bearish for Gold within #2 sessions aftermath, so expect a Intra-day Volatility and Bearish outlook as an result with #77.18% chances. Candle analysis didn’t gave me any patterns with great reliability which means that Gold is Trading under pure Fundamental pressure.


Fundamental analysis: Gold is testing the #1,815.80 - #1,818.80 Resistance Zone, which (with the exception of July #7) has been holding since late June - early July. DX is also on it’s #1-Month Resistance level. However the U.S. Bond Yields have resumed their spiral uptrend (# +0.87%) and as all competitive assets, they are what's most likely keeping Gold above the #1,800.80 psychological barrier (constant Bullish spikes). I mentioned the importance of the Hourly 1 chart’s Support zone as an switch from Bullish to Bearish Short-term, as I want to focus on the Hourly 4 chart’s Williams%, which is exactly on the levels where Gold priced an correction, and has been typically Buying the dip as soon as these values appear on the indicator. As long as the Resistance of #1,818.80 holds (candle closings below), I remain Bearish on Short-term. I expect #1,778.80 test and typical Target of configuration breaks includes #1,752.80 stabilization area. I will keep my Selling order overnight and see what tomorrow’s session has to offer if needed.


My position: As I closed my July's #9 Selling order with only #5 - #6 point Profit, I remained without a position until now. I have engaged my Selling order on #1,807.80 configuration, ready to await Selling sequence, as Buying is strongly limited on Short-term. With DX above Resistance levels and Yields Trading under Daily chart's Buying pressure, I don't see how Gold can continue the uptrend. If #1,800.80 breaks, Gold can slide towards #1,792.80, decent point to close my Selling order with Profit.