Gold is in a correction trend Can it break a new high next week？

The gold market price fluctuated greatly this week. Although the gold price was once pulled back by profit-taking and technical pressure, the overall performance was still on an upward trend. As of press time, the spot gold price was $2,882.85/ounce, slightly down from the historical high of $2,942.70/ounce at the beginning of the week, but the cumulative increase this week was close to 0.8%. Although the gold price has pulled back this week, it is still expected to record a seventh consecutive week of gains, which undoubtedly reflects the strong support of the current market.

US President Trump's latest remarks on tariffs, weak US economic data and a weaker dollar have provided safe-haven support for the gold market, attracting the attention of many investors. At the same time, the technical side of gold is also undergoing some adjustments, and market sentiment remains relatively complex.

Gold market trend this week

On Tuesday, the spot gold price hit a record high of $2,942.70/ounce, and then pulled back sharply, mainly due to profit-taking. Peter Grant of Zaner Metals pointed out that the failure of gold prices to break through the historical highs formed a potential double-top pattern, which became a signal of short-term adjustments. Although this technical correction failed to change the overall upward trend of gold prices, it also reflects the divergence of market sentiment and some investors tend to be cautious.

The rise in the gold market is mainly supported by multiple factors. First, the reciprocal tariff plan promoted by the Trump administration has once again intensified people's concerns about global trade conflicts. Trump asked his economic team on Thursday to study measures to impose corresponding tariffs on all countries that import goods from the United States, which will undoubtedly push up global inflation risks and intensify the market's risk aversion. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has once again become the first choice for investors.

In addition, the US retail data in January recorded the largest decline in nearly two years, which means that US economic growth may show signs of slowing down. Although the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are still far away, the market is still worried that inflationary pressure has not been resolved and the Fed is slow to act. The demand for gold as an anti-inflation tool remains strong.

In the field of precious metals, silver, platinum and palladium also performed strongly this week. Although some metals have experienced short-term corrections, the long-term upward trend has not changed. Spot silver once broke through 34/ounce, but ultimately failed to maintain its upward momentum and closed at 32.27/ounce. Alex Ebkarian pointed out that the demand for silver is gradually increasing, especially due to the rise in gold prices, retail investors have also turned to the silver market, further pushing up the demand for silver.

Next week's gold outlook
Looking ahead to next week, the gold market is still facing a more complicated situation, and market sentiment will be affected by multiple factors. From a fundamental point of view, Trump's reciprocal tariff policy will continue to have an impact on gold. Although the specific details of the implementation of tariffs have not yet been clarified, market concerns about inflationary pressures are expected to continue to push up the safe-haven demand for gold.

At the same time, the weakness of US economic data and the sharp decline in retail sales may mean that the US economy faces a certain risk of slowing down, which will further enhance the market's demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The Fed's policy remains the focus of market attention. Although inflation remains high, the Fed may continue to maintain the existing interest rate policy and may not even rush to cut interest rates, which means that gold prices will still fluctuate at high levels.

From a technical point of view, the pullback in gold prices may not mean a reversal of the trend, but a short-term adjustment after the market takes profits. If the gold price can hold above $2,880/ounce, it is still expected to break through the previous historical high in the short term. The technical support level of gold price is around $2,850. If it loses this level, it may trigger a further correction, but considering the current fundamental support, the downward space of gold price is limited.

The focus of the market next week includes the follow-up impact of the US retail sales data in January and the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. The weak economic data may further increase the market's safe-haven demand for gold, and whether the Federal Reserve will respond to the economic slowdown will also become a key factor affecting the trend of gold prices.

Summary

Although the gold market faces certain profit-taking pressure in the short term, the long-term upward trend remains unchanged. The Trump administration's tariff plan, inflation expectations, a weaker dollar and global trade tensions will continue to support the rise of gold. At the same time, the slowdown in US economic growth and the uncertainty of the Fed's policy also provide strong support for the gold market. Next week, the market will continue to pay attention to the global economic trend and US economic data. The safe-haven demand for gold may further heat up, pushing the gold price to maintain a higher price range.

In the next trading week, the gold market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Investors should pay close attention to changes in economic data and further policies that the Trump administration may introduce. Although short-term volatility may intensify, the medium- and long-term prospects for gold's rise remain optimistic.
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