Gold outlook may rise as retail traders turn bearish

Recently, gold prices have been pushed higher due to the cautious weakness of the US Treasury yields and the US dollar. Retail traders have increased their risk levels for these precious metals in response. This can be seen through the IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which acts as a contrary indicator.

The IGCS measure shows that around 66% of retail traders are net long on gold, indicating a possible future price decrease. The exposure to weakness has increased by 6.29% and 14.69% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With these recent changes in risk levels, it suggests that the price may reverse higher despite the overall positioning.

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US retail sales increased by 0.2% in June, following a 0.5% increase in May, according to the latest data from the US Department of Commerce. Economists had expected a 0.4% increase.

Year-on-year, headline sales rose by 1.5%. Core sales, which exclude car sales, also fell short of expectations, rising by 0.2% compared to the expected 0.4% increase.

However, the report's control group, which excludes cars, gasoline, building materials, and food services, exceeded expectations, rising by 0.6% in the previous month. Economists were looking for a 0.3% increase.

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