Barrick to $12?
Hello,
Thanks for viewing.
Let me start by saying that I am a big fan of Barrick but have been looking for an entry point for some time and now am sharing my view with everyone. Purely technical analysis based on a Elliot Wave. But simple, there was a big dip, partial retracement, and I expect this present dip to be about the same size in $ terms not percentage.
If The first drop was wave A and the three wave retracement was wave B (it is a bit messy there) then we are in wave C down now. Wave C always has 5 waves (3 in the trend direction and 2 counter-trend sub-waves).
Short term: bear,
Short to med term (once that first target is met); weak bull up to $17 - 18 - if you are trader this will be a difficult area to trade in).
Medium term' Bear; Down to sub-$14 possibly $12 or 11.XX
This target was reached with multiple coincident mapping techniques:
Fib extensions - 1.618 extension of wave 1 and a 1:1 extension of wave A.
Wave 5 of wave C can be expected to be a similar size to wave 1.
Also looked back at swing lows and highs from past price action to map support and resistance (17.50 - 17.30 WAS support in 2021 but is likely to act as resistance to a wave 4 (of wave C) pull-back (as mapped).
I don't really do fundamental analysis, but Barrick - being a metals equity - represents leverage on the underlying commodity. Do gold dips 18% and Barrick dips approx 40%.
General headwinds for equity markets with rising interest rates - unsustainable in my view.
Next week the consensus is for a 0.75% interest rate hike which makes equities and gold (the commodity) less desirable to hold vs a reliable cash coupon. (Also unsustainable in my view if inflation is north of 8% and Treasuries return 4% that is still a negative 4% real yield).
Crude oil (a major input into the production cost of mining) is elevated presently which squeezes Barrick's margins.
Recent weakness in the gold, silver and copper commodity prices.
Anyway, GOLD at $12 would be a screaming BUY. If it gets to that level...
I could go on, but I have a something on.
Thanks for viewing.
Let me start by saying that I am a big fan of Barrick but have been looking for an entry point for some time and now am sharing my view with everyone. Purely technical analysis based on a Elliot Wave. But simple, there was a big dip, partial retracement, and I expect this present dip to be about the same size in $ terms not percentage.
If The first drop was wave A and the three wave retracement was wave B (it is a bit messy there) then we are in wave C down now. Wave C always has 5 waves (3 in the trend direction and 2 counter-trend sub-waves).
Short term: bear,
Short to med term (once that first target is met); weak bull up to $17 - 18 - if you are trader this will be a difficult area to trade in).
Medium term' Bear; Down to sub-$14 possibly $12 or 11.XX
This target was reached with multiple coincident mapping techniques:
Fib extensions - 1.618 extension of wave 1 and a 1:1 extension of wave A.
Wave 5 of wave C can be expected to be a similar size to wave 1.
Also looked back at swing lows and highs from past price action to map support and resistance (17.50 - 17.30 WAS support in 2021 but is likely to act as resistance to a wave 4 (of wave C) pull-back (as mapped).
I don't really do fundamental analysis, but Barrick - being a metals equity - represents leverage on the underlying commodity. Do gold dips 18% and Barrick dips approx 40%.
General headwinds for equity markets with rising interest rates - unsustainable in my view.
Next week the consensus is for a 0.75% interest rate hike which makes equities and gold (the commodity) less desirable to hold vs a reliable cash coupon. (Also unsustainable in my view if inflation is north of 8% and Treasuries return 4% that is still a negative 4% real yield).
Crude oil (a major input into the production cost of mining) is elevated presently which squeezes Barrick's margins.
Recent weakness in the gold, silver and copper commodity prices.
Anyway, GOLD at $12 would be a screaming BUY. If it gets to that level...
I could go on, but I have a something on.
Feragatname
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