DAX BUY

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Retesting NWOG and reclaiming a 30m +OB, then rebalancing a 30m +FVG while respecting it with candle bodies. Moving through a 30m +IFVG thus confirming that the extreme opposing pressure is no longer a concern. Bumping into a 30m -RB that is now facilitating a pullback. A 6m +OB has already been formed above the 30m +IFVG which adds to our bullish case. Liquidity has been taken on the 6m an hour ago leaving us still with some time to enter until the respective combustion phase is completed. All we need is a retest of the split (equilibrium) zone of the validation 2m range and a solid delivery candle above the zone. Right now, price decided to retrace a little bit deeper but the finger is already on the trigger, so to say. Our target is the open 30m -FVG overhead that sits within our major shooting range.

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İşlem aktif

The pullback was a bit too aggressive, price seems to have been retracing all the way down to the 6h opening price. Given the size of the last counter swing (as it's already excessive according to our standards), a solid candle above the split zone will not be enough. We will require that a -BPR at the top of the range be reversed if we are to believe that this is ready to continue higher.

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I mean the 6m -BPR inside the 6m counter swing.

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İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı

The situation got a bit more complicated and will require more patience. While it's nice to see that the 30m +IFVG was respected again during this last pullback and that we're now pushing against the already mitigated 30m -RB again, the 6m +OB we initially wanted to use to build our bullish case was effectively disrespected and replaced with a new, huge series of down-closed candles. There's a new 6m +OB formed on the right side of the curve and it's valid given a new sweep that just happened down below, however, we can't use that one as its outer edge is still inside the 30m +IFVG.
The 6m -BPR at the top of the range is now facilitating a pullback to that new 6m +OB which is being mitigated as we speak. It's nice to see that this part is going to be efficient.
We can still use the same 30m +IFVG to build our case but we'll need a new 6m +OB to be formed above it if we are to adhere to our system.

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First time trying these comments on TradingView here just for fun. Didn't know there are 3 comments directly related to a certain STATUS of the trade. Now I get it. Next time I'll be wiser. Just to be clear. The trade has not been closed, it's not been opened yet.

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We now have a mitigation of a 30m +RB which we could use as our foundation. The new 6m +OB is already above this 30m +RB. All looking pretty nice. The new 6m +OB now mitigated, the new 2m split zone retested. Finger on the trigger again. Waiting for a solid delivery candle as our last confirmation.

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The patience is the name of the game. We didn't get a buyside delivery on the 2m above our new 6m +OB. Price decided to sweep one of the recent 6m lows. The 6m +OB is floating which means the foot may be violated and we may get an even deeper sweep. Either way, unless we're back above the 6m +OB, no action for now.

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Now, we're way too low. The foundation - our 30m +OB - still stands but the opposing pressure is too strong, we would need the last FVG in the last 30m counter swing to be reversed to consider a long. We have now closed way below the 30m +IFVG. The thing looks weak right now.

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This turned out to be an exercise in restraint. Our conditions weren’t met, and I don’t expect anything substantial to happen this afternoon (New York time). We’ve climbed back up to the 30-minute -FVG in the excessive opposing swing. For us to consider a buy, it needs to reverse. We’re consolidating just below this gap, above the edge of the 30-minute -OB. Despite the strong downside momentum, this consolidation isn’t exactly bearish. You’d expect the price to be rejected more decisively by the 30-minute -FVG and the -OB. Right now, it feels somewhat neutral, though I’d still lean slightly toward the upside. Our case essentially holds, at least based on the 30-minute foundation provided by the 30-minute +OB below. Let’s see how the price eventually handles the -FVG. If it pushes through, I’ll buy tomorrow, aiming for the 30-minute -FVG higher up. There’s still an unbalanced daily -BPR sitting up there, and it would make sense to target it, even if we’re long-term weak. Let’s revisit this tomorrow.

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One last update for today: I’ve just noticed that the daily -BPR was actually already hit during the Asian session, and that was likely the main driver behind the wild sell-off in the London session today. This makes the situation look much weaker, as we don’t really have much reason anymore to expect activity up there. Still, the 30-minute -FVG will provide more clarity.