Gold Futures Monthly -- Fed Hawk, Pivot and Dove

As you can see, a Hawkish Fed does not necessarily have a momentous impact on gold. From 12/16 to 12/18, the Fed went on a hiking spree and gold fluctuated at a level between 1300 and 1100 over the period. So there was a base set over a two year period. When the Fed pivoted and halted the interest hikes, gold jumped and then leveled for a while until rates were reduced by the Fed from 7/19 into 3/20. From there gold jumped.

Despite the recent hawkish Fed going back to early 2022, gold has hovered in a flag since April 2023 above the 1900 level (with only minor dips).

Whether the hawk talk continues or not, I expect a seasonal push in gold to 2200 range by January, 2024.