EU summit, no stimulus, new pandemic records

16 Eki 2020

Yesterday was formally the day (according to Boris Johnson's ultimatum) when Britain has to withdraw from the negotiation process with the EU. Nevertheless, the sides continue to negotiate. EU leaders after the first day of summit called on the UK to "make the necessary moves to make an agreement possible". This once again suggests that a trade agreement will be. It means that purchases of the pound, although they look hopeless in the long term, here and now may be a good trading idea.

An even more promising trading idea both in the “here and now” horizon and in the longer term is selling in the stock markets, both in the United States and other countries, for example, India. The pandemic is in full swing again, countries on the verge of despair and new lockdowns, and the issue of stimulus in the United States has finally reached a dead end. At least, according to US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who said that it is almost impossible to do anything with stimulus before the elections. In general, we might not see a full stimulus package in 2020 at all. Taking into account the fading economic recovery and the well-founded fears of a new recessive wave, we have an almost ideal situation for selling in the US stock market.

The second wave is increasingly covering Europe and the world as a whole. Germany, France, Great Britain and a number of other countries have reached maximum number of new cases, and the situation is getting worse day by day. Accordingly, restrictions are getting tougher, with all the consequences for the economy. And judging by data from the United States on initial applications for unemployment benefits, everything is not very good without it: jobless claims are again about 900K.

Oil was under the pressure as well. Motivation mostly the same. Note that this is not all that oil sellers can show, so we continue to be in the sale of the asset.