Art 50 extension likely...an update to Cable
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Here we have an update to the Cable chart.
The UK going back to the 1600’s as odds of another vote on PM May’s deal in the House of Commons this week are very low. For a house of “Commons” they are certainly lacking “common sense”.
... The rules are that two votes on the same motion are not permitted during the same parliamentary year. This means PM May will have to wait till July before being able to put the vote forward again.
Obviously this can change if we see any changes in the majority support, however, as things stand we are on track for a no-deal Brexit from a legal perspective….The big question remains whether the EU will approve the extension. Odds of a long extension are creeping higher (67%) meaning pressure on the Brexiteers will increase massively to such an extent that they are forced to back May’s deal.
Remember up until now we have been trading the conjecture leg of Brexit. The damage so far has come only from uncertainty, we have yet to experience the main impact of losing market access on the economy.
Best of luck those who are positioned on either side for this result... we are going to see some fireworks!
The UK going back to the 1600’s as odds of another vote on PM May’s deal in the House of Commons this week are very low. For a house of “Commons” they are certainly lacking “common sense”.
... The rules are that two votes on the same motion are not permitted during the same parliamentary year. This means PM May will have to wait till July before being able to put the vote forward again.
Obviously this can change if we see any changes in the majority support, however, as things stand we are on track for a no-deal Brexit from a legal perspective….The big question remains whether the EU will approve the extension. Odds of a long extension are creeping higher (67%) meaning pressure on the Brexiteers will increase massively to such an extent that they are forced to back May’s deal.
Remember up until now we have been trading the conjecture leg of Brexit. The damage so far has come only from uncertainty, we have yet to experience the main impact of losing market access on the economy.
Best of luck those who are positioned on either side for this result... we are going to see some fireworks!
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