Toss-Up Decision for Bank of England Amidst UK CPI Surprise

20 Eyl 2023

A significant downside surprise in the latest UK CPI data has turned the Bank of England rate decision into a 50/50 chance between raising rates and maintaining the status quo. Nevertheless, considering the near-record high wage growth, it is probable that this will tip the balance toward a final rate hike. Much like the recent ECB policy decision, there is an elevated risk of the BoE opting for a dovish rate hike following the UK inflation report.