Oct 2015 Week 3: GBPUSD Long Bias

18 Eki 2015

Some not-so-good news from the U-S-of-A has weakened the USD last week. This week, we may see a continuation of GBP's strength against the USD. I am expecting it to find support at 1.53800 before continuing long, breaking the resistance at 1.54800. and attempting to reach 1.56300.

Last week, I anticipated the market to reach for 1.54800 before selling off. Though the market did stop at that area, I have changed this outlook due to some fundamental reasons - mainly that the Fed is more likely to not increase Interest Rates this year. This should weaken the USD at least for the rest of the year. So I am looking for Buy setups moving forward, the same as my outlook in EURUSD.

My bias is on Long but my profit targets will be very conservative because things in EU and UK may not fair better than the US.

19 Eki 2015

Not

Still hoping for a deeper pull back before I buy, but judging how it looks yesterday, and depending on whatever Cartney says, I might buy above my ideal entry point. I'm also looking at GBPAUD because the combination of GBP's strength and AUD's weakness will make for some handsome moves.

21 Eki 2015

Not

This is the ideal scenario that I'm expecting for today:

The lack of liquidity hours prior to the Retail Sales report will allow some market makers to manipulate the market. Since the expectations for this report is positive, the overall move should be bullish. But price could dive down first as far as 1.53500 - this is to get a better price and to trigger Sell Stops which the market makers will buy into. Once the Sell Stops are consumed, market will turn around. Once I see that it's really turning and it reached back 50% of the down move right before the report, that's when I'll buy. If the report turns out to be within expectations, I will set the TP to 1.5550. But if it's well above expectations, I'd set it to 1.56300. I'd still take partial profit at 1.55000.

I'll close the trade right away if report is below expectations.

22 Eki 2015

Not

We got left behind by the London Session's move. Now we're awaiting how the ECB will affect the Cable. But I feel that it will consolidate between 1.5400 to 1.5500 for a while.

24 Eki 2015

Emir iptal

We can't go against USD's strength. The moment USD rallied against all currencies, I knew this was not a good entry so I didn't go in. The fundamental climate is still tumultuous with central banks trying to weaken their currencies. The Fed doesn't like USD to get too strong either, not until they see some improvements on their economy. With another FOMC statement and the quarterly GDP report, we can expect another volatile week as October closes.

As for the GBP, this weakness could be temporary. If the FOMC moves to weaken the USD with a dovish statement, and if the GDP turns out to be not so good, the USD could become weaker and GBP could come up on top this week. So I will still be looking for a long.