GU Ascends From Triangle - Breakout & Retest Set-Up

15 Şub

GBPUSD ended last week with a Bullish Price Breakout of the Ascending Triangle that it fell into after breaking down below Support-Turned-Resistance and finding Support at the October 2023 Lows last month.

Overall indicators suggest we could be experiencing a Valid Breakout of this pattern due to:
1) Strong Breaker Bar with Close outside of Range
2) Based on the Range from High to Low of the Ascending Triangle, Price made a 26% move beyond the break
3) Bullish Volume following Break
4) RSI Above 50

The Confirmation of Valid Break will come if price is able to:
1) Close 3 - 5 Days outside of pattern
2) Price successfully is Supported by Previous Structure Broken
3) Bullish Volume Builds on Retest

When the Breakout is Validated, Buying opportunities could be delivered in the ( 1.2525 - 1.2485 ) Range on the retest with an immediate Target Profit at the December 2024 Resistance laying overhead at the ( 1.28 - 1.29 ) Range

Fundamentally, this month we saw BOE make a 25bps rate cut down to 4.50% with GBP having quite a positive increase in GDP (+.3%) which could be inflationary. USD showed a slight uptick in CPI (+.1% y/y) strengthening the stance on minimal Rate Cutes this year but a big miss in Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims and Non-Farm Employment!

GBP:
Tuesday - Claimont Count Change/ BOE Gov. Bailey Speaks
Wednesday - CPI
Thursday - Consumer Confidence
Friday - Retail Sales/ Flash Manufacturing PMI/ Flash Services PMI

USD:
Monday - Presidents Day (Bank Holiday)
Tuesday - Empire State Manufacturing Index
Wednesday - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday - Unemployment Claims/ Philly Fed Manufacturing Index/ Crude Oil Inventories
Friday - Flash Manufacturing PMI/ Flash Services PMI/ Existing Home Sales

18 Şub

Not

GBPUSD has closed for a 3rd Day outside of the Resistance of the pattern filling the last rule of the True or False formula to signal a True Breakout.

Bullish Volume exploded Feb. 13th being the 1st Daily candle to Break and Close outside of Resistance

RSI Above 50 and healthy

*Once GBPUSD makes a Pullback to the 1.2525 - 1.2485 Range, Long Opportunities should be generated!

-Be watchful for upcoming fundamental shifts in News for GBP

18 Şub

Not

DXY is showing weakness with Price trading below Resistance and with RSI operating under 50

If DXY rises to 108, It will have to contest with the strong 108 Resistance and could fall if unable to break back above!

*Further strengthening the GU Long opportunities