Trend Analysis On the 4-hour chart, GBP/NZD is in a short-term downtrend, having recently broken below the minor key support at 2.19900. After this break, the price formed several Doji candles, indicating market indecision. This suggests the price may be temporarily pausing and gathering momentum for the next move. We expect the price to retrace upward to break the 2.19900 minor resistance, grabbing liquidity before continuing the bearish momentum.
Price Action Expectation Our objective is to wait for the price to break above 2.19900, form liquidity, and then reverse back below this level. Once the price breaks below the minor support again, it will confirm a continuation of the downtrend, providing an opportunity for a short position.
Fundamental Correlation Traders should be mindful of economic releases or events affecting GBP or NZD, as they could impact market volatility and influence the pair's price movement.
Trade Setup Trade Type: Sell Stop (Breakout Trade) Entry: 2.19770 (on confirmation of a break below support) Stop Loss: 2.20370 (above the recent high to account for false breakouts) Take Profit: 2.18440 (next significant support level)
Conclusion: GBP/NZD is set for a potential bearish continuation, with the break-and-retest scenario aligning with the downtrend structure. Liquidity above 2.19900 may act as a catalyst for the next downward move. Wait for confirmation of the break below 2.19900 before entering a short position.
Risk Management Ensure a disciplined approach with a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio. Position sizes should be calculated to align with your account equity. Monitor real-time price action closely, especially around critical levels, to validate or invalidate the setup.
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