GBPCHF Breakout Eyes 1.1190–1.1290 as Bullish Momentum Builds

11 May

GBP/CHF has broken out of a descending wedge formation on the 4H chart, indicating a bullish shift in momentum. This move is supported by a recovering GBP, driven by better-than-expected UK GDP data and BoE easing expectations already priced in. Meanwhile, CHF is softening on safe-haven unwinding and a less aggressive SNB tone. Technicals point to a clean breakout with immediate upside targets at 1.1116 and 1.1190, with potential extension toward 1.1290.

🔍 Technical Analysis
Pattern: Descending wedge breakout on the 4H chart — a bullish continuation pattern.

Breakout Confirmation: Price is now trading above wedge resistance (~1.1045), showing follow-through buying.

Support zone: 1.1000–1.1040 (retest area if price pulls back)

Fibonacci Levels:

1.1116 → 50% Fib retracement + prior resistance

1.1190 → 61.8% Fib and historical reaction zone

1.1290 → 78.6% retracement and next key resistance

📈 Bullish Signals:

EUR/GBP overlay shows inverse correlation supporting GBP strength

Higher lows forming since April → structure is rising

Clean breakout with space to run before major resistance hits

🌍 Fundamental Context
🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP):
UK Q1 GDP: +0.6% q/q — solid beat vs expectations

BoE Positioning: Rate cut expected in H2 2025, but not imminent; GBP supported in the meantime

Trade Conditions: Signs of recovery, but BoE not overly dovish yet

Market Tone: GBP favored short-term due to economic resilience

🇨🇭 Swiss Franc (CHF):
SNB Stance: Recent tone shift toward caution amid deflation signals

Safe Haven Demand: Easing due to progress in U.S.–China trade talks

Macroeconomic Data: Mixed; CPI soft, and growth modest

CHF Outlook: Mildly bearish unless geopolitical risk reignites

🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: Breakout already underway at 1.1050

Upside Targets:

1.1116 (first TP)

1.1190 (major resistance zone)

1.1290 (extension zone)

Stop Loss: Below 1.1000 (below wedge retest zone)

Strategy: Buy-the-dip on pullback to 1.1040–1.1015, or hold breakout long

🧭 Conclusion
GBP/CHF shows a clean bullish breakout both technically and fundamentally. With the UK economy showing near-term resilience and the SNB expected to remain cautious, GBP strength may persist in the short run. Unless geopolitical risks resurface to revive CHF demand, the pair looks poised for a rally toward 1.1190 and possibly 1.1290 in the coming sessions.

14 May

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