GBP/CAD long CAD boosted by Bank of Canada rate hike

Risks a drop toward the 200-DMA
GBP/CAD’s failure to rise decisively past the end-2022 high of 1.6850, slightly above major resistance on the 200-week moving average, points to fatigue in the nine-month-long rally. The cross is testing a crucial converged floor, including the April low of 1.6535, coinciding with the 89-period moving average. While a minor rebound can’t be ruled out given the significance of the support, the broader bias remains down, potentially toward the 200-day moving average (now at about 1.6225).

The Canadian dollar may have just received the boost to extend gains against some of its peers, thanks to the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) hike on Wednesday.

BOC hiked its overnight rate to a 22-year high of 4.75%, saying “concerns have increased that CPI inflation could get stuck materially above the 2% target.” The central bank, however, dropped the April language saying it “remains prepared to raise the policy rate further”, making it more data dependent. Markets are pricing in another rate hike in July, with the terminal rate seen at 5.15% by the end of the year.