FXE near low of the year yet no new low in 5 days

Bottom end of the range here for the EUR/USD
with lots of fan-fare and negative news along with
a clearly downtrending pattern from the high earlier
this year. HOWEVER, short positions are massive
down here AND this is the 5th day without a new low.
When there are no "new lows in 5 days" you can take
a shot at the long side with a stop under the lows.

I only view upside potential to be to the 133-134 area,
and that is where I will want to be placing short positions.
But I believe this is a low-risk long-entry here at 130.22
with a 129.30 stop. I normally would recommend using
a 3 average range stop or 3 pts, however, this setup
allows for a much tighter stop. The problem is that
it will only be correct less than 40% of the time.

By: Technical Tim, Wed, Dec 21, 2011 1:01PM EST