The 4 stages of a trading market refer to the phases markets typically go through based on price action and investor behavior.
These stages are:
Accumulation Phase
Occurs after a market decline or at the bottom of a cycle. Smart money (institutional investors) begins to buy assets quietly, as prices are low, and market sentiment is cautious or negative. Price movements are sideways with low volatility.
Advancing Phase (Markup Phase)
A strong upward trend begins as demand exceeds supply. More investors enter the market, driven by optimism and positive sentiment. Prices rise consistently, with higher highs and higher lows.
Distribution Phase
This phase happens near the market peak. Smart money begins to sell their positions to retail investors attracted by the rising prices. Prices fluctuate in a range (sideways movement), and market sentiment is overly optimistic or euphoric.
Decline Phase (Mark-Down Phase)
A strong downward trend begins as supply exceeds demand. Prices fall steadily, with lower highs and lower lows. Investor sentiment turns pessimistic, leading to panic selling.
These stages repeat as part of the market cycle, driven by economic conditions, investor psychology, and supply-demand dynamics.
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What are the risk for the Return of Investment (Not the Capital Investment)
What will bring the market (OR) Individual asset class to the Stage 4_ Global market (Decline Stage:
Unsystematic risk or risk specific risk, which is related within the company sector.
In finance, a specific risk is a risk that affects a very small number of assets. This is sometimes referred to as "unsystematic risk". In a balanced portfolio of assets there would be a spread between general market risk and risks specific to individual components of that portfolio.
An example would be news that is specific to either one stock or a group of companies, such as the loss of a patent or a major natural disaster affecting the company's operation.
2. Systematic risk , tied to the broader market example of following previous year crisis that effected within the whole global market:
In finance and economics, systematic risk (in economics often called aggregate risk or undiversifiable risk) is vulnerability to events which affect aggregate outcomes such as broad market returns, total economy wide resource holdings, or aggregate income. In many contexts, events like earthquakes, epidemics and major weather catastrophes pose aggregate risks that affect not only the distribution but also the total amount of resources. That is why it is also known as contingent risk, unplanned risk or risk events.
Example of previous years when Systematic risk took a place:
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