2024-11-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra- Bullish. Globex opened with a big gap up and bears closed it but could not close the gap to Friday’s closing price. This is bullish confirmation and bulls will now poke the bear trend line until it breaks. Bears would need a 1h close below 19300 to make me question this move. Bear trend line held, which is why we are forming nested triangles. Expect more sideways movement until bulls break above 19500 with force. Afterwards 19600 will come fast and then we retest the ath.
comment: Doji on the daily chart but bulls confirmed the breakout. Not much to add after my tl;dr and my weekly outlook.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls need to keep it above 19300 and poke the bear trend line until it breaks. Next target is 1h close above 19500, followed by 19600/19650.
Invalidation is below 19300.
bear case: Bears could not close the gap to 19357, which shows weakness. If they get it tomorrow, we will test the next bull trend line around 19250 and bulls better pray that holds or it 19100 or lower again. 1h close above 19500 and most bears will give up until 19600. Not more magic to it.
Invalidation is above 19500 (need 1h close above, not another spike and reversal).
short term: Bullish for the breakout above 19500 but for now it’s a clear trading range 19350 - 19500, so buy low, sell high and scalp until we clearly go higher.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 19500 was the easiest. Other than that it was a limit order market for small scalps at best.
tl;dr
dax xetra- Bullish. Globex opened with a big gap up and bears closed it but could not close the gap to Friday’s closing price. This is bullish confirmation and bulls will now poke the bear trend line until it breaks. Bears would need a 1h close below 19300 to make me question this move. Bear trend line held, which is why we are forming nested triangles. Expect more sideways movement until bulls break above 19500 with force. Afterwards 19600 will come fast and then we retest the ath.
comment: Doji on the daily chart but bulls confirmed the breakout. Not much to add after my tl;dr and my weekly outlook.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls need to keep it above 19300 and poke the bear trend line until it breaks. Next target is 1h close above 19500, followed by 19600/19650.
Invalidation is below 19300.
bear case: Bears could not close the gap to 19357, which shows weakness. If they get it tomorrow, we will test the next bull trend line around 19250 and bulls better pray that holds or it 19100 or lower again. 1h close above 19500 and most bears will give up until 19600. Not more magic to it.
Invalidation is above 19500 (need 1h close above, not another spike and reversal).
short term: Bullish for the breakout above 19500 but for now it’s a clear trading range 19350 - 19500, so buy low, sell high and scalp until we clearly go higher.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 19500 was the easiest. Other than that it was a limit order market for small scalps at best.
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