Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Is this a bigger two-legged pullback to the 4h ema and now we strongly break above 23900 to go for 24200+ again? It’s my most likely case. It’s still not a good trade to buy above 23800 since that trapped you two times this week for 230 and 300 point pullbacks.
current market cycle: broad bull channel on the weekly chart. Daily chart is in a trading range 23000 - 24500
key levels: 23500 - 24500
bull case: Everything aligns for the bulls. They need the breakout above Tuesday’s high and then we go for the obvious big round number 24000 but I doubt we will stop here. Once the bears who sold above 23800 this week give up, I doubt there will be much resistance until maybe 24300 or higher. Anything below 23600 would be a huge bear surprise tomorrow and my bullish bias is likely wrong.
Invalidation is below 23000.
bear case: Bears don’t have much until they print below 23600 again. Can they hold the market below 24000 and keep this trading range alive? I doubt it. Bears tried 3 times this week and the bull gap to 23550 stayed open.
Invalidation is above 24100.
short term: Bullish. Still expecting 24000 and no print below 23600 tomorrow. Everything else would be a big bear surprise and we could go much lower than 23500 but this is the most unlikely scenario.
medium-long term from 2025-06-22: New bear trend has likely started on 2025-06-05 and we saw W2 conclude on Friday. Daily close below 23000 will be the confirmation for the bears and I have drawn 2 potential final W5 targets. I have written that we will see 20000/21000 again over the summer for many weeks/months now, this even is just another excuse for “analysts” to justify the move down.
trade of the day: Longs close to 23600 were the obvious trade today. The selling for 198 was at least 100 points stronger than I expected and stopped me out but I immediately went long again on the very strong buying below 23650 and closed the day with profits.
comment: Is this a bigger two-legged pullback to the 4h ema and now we strongly break above 23900 to go for 24200+ again? It’s my most likely case. It’s still not a good trade to buy above 23800 since that trapped you two times this week for 230 and 300 point pullbacks.
current market cycle: broad bull channel on the weekly chart. Daily chart is in a trading range 23000 - 24500
key levels: 23500 - 24500
bull case: Everything aligns for the bulls. They need the breakout above Tuesday’s high and then we go for the obvious big round number 24000 but I doubt we will stop here. Once the bears who sold above 23800 this week give up, I doubt there will be much resistance until maybe 24300 or higher. Anything below 23600 would be a huge bear surprise tomorrow and my bullish bias is likely wrong.
Invalidation is below 23000.
bear case: Bears don’t have much until they print below 23600 again. Can they hold the market below 24000 and keep this trading range alive? I doubt it. Bears tried 3 times this week and the bull gap to 23550 stayed open.
Invalidation is above 24100.
short term: Bullish. Still expecting 24000 and no print below 23600 tomorrow. Everything else would be a big bear surprise and we could go much lower than 23500 but this is the most unlikely scenario.
medium-long term from 2025-06-22: New bear trend has likely started on 2025-06-05 and we saw W2 conclude on Friday. Daily close below 23000 will be the confirmation for the bears and I have drawn 2 potential final W5 targets. I have written that we will see 20000/21000 again over the summer for many weeks/months now, this even is just another excuse for “analysts” to justify the move down.
trade of the day: Longs close to 23600 were the obvious trade today. The selling for 198 was at least 100 points stronger than I expected and stopped me out but I immediately went long again on the very strong buying below 23650 and closed the day with profits.
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Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.