2025-02-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

comment: I do think the profit taking is around the corner but for now that does not help. Longs are paying, so join the bulls or wait for bigger bears to appear. No more bullish targets from me. 20k was a bubble but 22k is beyond everything. -30% would bring us to 15% and that was the beginning of this bull trend in 2023-10. No matter how you draw the patterns, we are above all of them or at the very top. Looking for shorts does not help when the market goes only up. Join the momentum or wait for the profit taking to begin.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels: 22000 - 22300

bull case: Bulls have measured move up from last weeks low and there is a bull wedge line going up to 22300ish. No idea if we can get there but until we have a daily close below 20k, bulls have all the momentum on their side to continue.

Invalidation is below 21900.

bear case: Bears need to break below many bull trend lines and ema before this can start selling bigger. If bears could prevent the current gap from 22118 to 22180 tomorrow, that would be a start. Retesting 22000 would be the next step but for now the bull trend line is intact and we can’t expect it to break all of a sudden. If bears somehow get below 22k, which I doubt, 21850 is the next bigger target.

Invalidation is above 22300.

short term: Neutral. Can’t hold the bearish bias when market is only going up. Can this be the top and we go down from here? Yeah sure but the same logic was true at 20k. Picking tops is a bad game. Need to have a daily close below 22k before we can look for lower targets. Right now bulls are still creating gaps below and that’s bullish af.

medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-11: I need to stop playing the top picking game. This trend is so beyond anything. Disgusting also. Big bull wedge on the daily chart has to break down and if we can close below 21900 again, I will look for lower targets. I still think this is a blow-off top and will be the exhaustive end of the trend but that believe does not help when the market is only going up. 19600 is my minimum bear target for this year.

current swing trade: None

trade of the day: Buying the open and holding because the low 21969 held, which was only couple of points below the Globex low.