FCPO - Crude Palm Oil 17/4/2025 Daily Chart Market Analysis

• Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar in its lower half with a small tail below.
  
• We said that the recent selling has been climactic and slightly oversold. Perhaps we may see a minor pullback towards the 20-day EMA or April 10 high area?
  
• The market attempted to reverse higher but sold off in the last 30 minutes.
  
• Currently, the candlestick is a small bull inside doji.
  
• The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 16) and a small double bottom (Apr 9 and Apr 16)
  
• They see the current move simply as a retest of the April 9 low and want a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal.
  
• They see the last 3 trading days forming a micro wedge (Apr 14, Apr 15, and Apr 16).
  
• They must create strong bull bars with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a TBTL (Ten Bars, Two Legs) pullback.
  
• They want a retest of the 20-day EMA or the April 10 high.
  
• The bears want a retest of the January low.
  
• They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low.
  
• If the market trades higher, they want the April 10 high or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance, followed by a reversal from a double-top bear flag.
  
• Exports for the first 15 days are up ITS: 16.95%, AmSpec: 13.55%.
  
• Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet.
  
• Refineries' appetite to buy physical remains lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market.
  
• The market remains Always In Short.
  
• The recent selling has been climactic and slightly oversold.
  
• The move down since April 10 has a lot of overlapping candlestick. (see the 4 hr chart below). While the tight bear channel means persistent selling, the overlapping candlesticks indicate a weaker down phase than the first leg down (April 2 to April 9).
  

• The bulls need to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a minor pullback towards the 20-day EMA or April 10 high area. So far, they have not yet been able to do so.
  
• If the bears get a strong breakout below the April 9 low with strong follow-through selling instead, the odds of a retest of the 3850-3900 area will increase.
  
• Let's monitor the buying/selling pressure tomorrow.
  

Possible resistance area to pay attention: around the 4040-50 to 4070 area.