Good morning traders. After yesterday's slight shifts towards risk-off (USD firmer and risk currencies softer), Asian markets closed mixed with Shanghai and Australia posting gains, but Nikkei and Hang Seng in the red. European markets recovered some ground after yesterday's sell off and trade in the green, with the DAX taking the leading position (+0.81% so far).
🔴 USD INDEX
The USDx has enjoyed a strong Tuesday but entered into a consolidation phase this morning ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes (released at 8:00 PM CET this evening).
Yields are softer, which could pose a risk for USD bulls during the day. The positive correlation between the USDx and 2-year yields is still broken (USD higher despite lower yields.)
🔴 COMMODITIES
Comms hold up pretty well this morning, with Copper futures taking the lead. Could be beneficial for the AUD and some other commodity currencies.
🔴 CURRENCY STRENGTH
Commodity currencies are the strongest so far (CAD, NZD, and AUD), while EUR and JPY are the weakest.
AUD seems to pick up on slightly positive risk sentiment, the shift in RBA's monetary policy stance, and higher copper prices. NZD is also supported by market expectations about a hawkish shift in the RBNZ, while CAD enjoys higher oil prices.
🔴 ECONOMIC CALENDAR
The FOMC Meeting Minutes is the main event of today that can have a strong impact on the USD. How will the hawks and doves argue their cases for a rate hike in 2022?
Other important reports include the EU Economic Projections, and the CAD Ivey PMI and CAD JOLTS Job Openings (both expected slightly stronger).
🔴 TOP TRADE IDEAS FOR JULY 07
- Bullish bias on USD - There are not many reasons to turn bearish on the USD today, especially given the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which can fuel another bull run in the currency.
- Bullish AUD against weak currencies - The AUD should be able to recover some ground (given risk appetite doesn't turn negative), especially against weaker currencies
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