EURUSD - long and short term view

15 Mar 2022

In the longer term I have two opposite scenarios - base case (red) implies bullish run up to 1.6+ zone, alt count (blue) would bring us to 0.85+. Details are below:

Long-term: EURUSD is building a base for a long term bullish structure. I count impulsive run from Dec'16 to Jan'18 as circle wave a of the 5th wave in the leading diagonal. At the moment it's completing circle wave b which should be followed by the strong move to 1.6+ zone.
Alt count: blue count showing the whole structure is a triangle originated in 2015. In this case it shouldn't breach 1.06. Circle wave e target is 1.20+ which should be followed by strong move down to 0.85+.

Short-term: wave 4 is forming, should take up to 2 months to complete, target zone is 1.12+. Expect to see weakness afterwards to 1.06+. Shouldn't breach 1.033.
Alt count: should reverse from here to 1.20.

Bottom-line - both counts are bullish in the short term

11 May 2022

Not

EURUSD has reached the target box for the RED count. If strong impulse up manifests itself one should expect a long-term EUR bullish market on the next 3-5 years.