EURUSD - MIGHT BE ABOUT RESUME IT'S BULLISH CYCLE (UPDATE)
In my last chart I suggested that a possible ending diagonal might have form a low above 1.08350 which failed hence the flat correction of 3-3-5 in now ruled out.
However the overall larger time frame picture is not changed much in that since the May high price action is correcting the move of the March low and is not a resumption of bearish cycle. The main reason for this view that that the initial decline of May high is clearly a zigzag (ending at 1.0830) and not an impulsive 5 wave decline.
Therefore this suggest that once the correction is over, there will be a follow through of the move higher.
Having said that there are still 2 possibilities, both expected to resolve to the upside:
1. The we have double zigzag, the 1st ending in May (highlighted in chart) and upon a completion of rally high in June, we have now declined in what looks like double zigzag.
2. The second possibility is that we have more side way correction in the form of contracting triangle (abcde 3-3-3-3-3 configuration). If this is in play then still a rally towards the upper range of the triangle should develop.
Here are the technical summary:
1. Since May high, we appear to have double zigzag correction which is near completion.
2. We have retraced 61.8% Fib of the entire rise of the March low and approaching 66.67% (2/3rd Gann percentage) and 78.6% Fib retracement
3. Potential bullish RSI divergence.
4. In the proximity of the previous structure support.
5. If the Fib time symmetry holds then the anticipated low due in this time window.
Invalidation level to note is 1.07 (only for review to as new low below 1.06 would not necessarily alter the picture)
If the above plays out then the upside is anticipated to be either large wave 3 or C. AB=CD would give us approx target of around 1.18 or higher.
In case of triangle as second scenario, the upper range of would be around 1.13.
In both of the above, the nature of the rise will give further clues about which of the two possibilities is developing.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
danv-charting.com
However the overall larger time frame picture is not changed much in that since the May high price action is correcting the move of the March low and is not a resumption of bearish cycle. The main reason for this view that that the initial decline of May high is clearly a zigzag (ending at 1.0830) and not an impulsive 5 wave decline.
Therefore this suggest that once the correction is over, there will be a follow through of the move higher.
Having said that there are still 2 possibilities, both expected to resolve to the upside:
1. The we have double zigzag, the 1st ending in May (highlighted in chart) and upon a completion of rally high in June, we have now declined in what looks like double zigzag.
2. The second possibility is that we have more side way correction in the form of contracting triangle (abcde 3-3-3-3-3 configuration). If this is in play then still a rally towards the upper range of the triangle should develop.
Here are the technical summary:
1. Since May high, we appear to have double zigzag correction which is near completion.
2. We have retraced 61.8% Fib of the entire rise of the March low and approaching 66.67% (2/3rd Gann percentage) and 78.6% Fib retracement
3. Potential bullish RSI divergence.
4. In the proximity of the previous structure support.
5. If the Fib time symmetry holds then the anticipated low due in this time window.
Invalidation level to note is 1.07 (only for review to as new low below 1.06 would not necessarily alter the picture)
If the above plays out then the upside is anticipated to be either large wave 3 or C. AB=CD would give us approx target of around 1.18 or higher.
In case of triangle as second scenario, the upper range of would be around 1.13.
In both of the above, the nature of the rise will give further clues about which of the two possibilities is developing.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
danv-charting.com
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