An update to our EURUSD roadmap after ECB yesterday
What are we updating here?
=> After a dovish ECB we can see the removal of some large macro support at 1.133 which implies the prospect of a fresh leg lower.
=> After the sharp fall yesterday we managed to close below the November uptrend and Early January low to raise the odds of this consolidation range resolving lower.
=> Here we are actively looking for areas of interest, and below we see support at 1.1269 ahead of a move back towards the 2018 low at 1.1215. If both are taken we unlock the scope for a retest of the 61.8% retracement at 1.118.
=> It is important to note that in our 'bigger picture' we see EURUSD moving higher later in the year so these areas are all going to encounter support and should hold as long as expectations for rate differentials narrowing remain intact.
=> Should we break below we would see a resumption of the bear trend that started in 2018 and the next key support comes in at 1.1143.
=> Resistance is initially seen at 1.1339 and 1.1425. Above here is necessary to see the market start to trade back within a range and improve odds of any meaningful upside.
=> Best of luck to those who are trading the ECB flows, attached you can find our macro maps and ideas for the coming quarters in Europe.
=> After a dovish ECB we can see the removal of some large macro support at 1.133 which implies the prospect of a fresh leg lower.
=> After the sharp fall yesterday we managed to close below the November uptrend and Early January low to raise the odds of this consolidation range resolving lower.
=> Here we are actively looking for areas of interest, and below we see support at 1.1269 ahead of a move back towards the 2018 low at 1.1215. If both are taken we unlock the scope for a retest of the 61.8% retracement at 1.118.
=> It is important to note that in our 'bigger picture' we see EURUSD moving higher later in the year so these areas are all going to encounter support and should hold as long as expectations for rate differentials narrowing remain intact.
=> Should we break below we would see a resumption of the bear trend that started in 2018 and the next key support comes in at 1.1143.
=> Resistance is initially seen at 1.1339 and 1.1425. Above here is necessary to see the market start to trade back within a range and improve odds of any meaningful upside.
=> Best of luck to those who are trading the ECB flows, attached you can find our macro maps and ideas for the coming quarters in Europe.
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