EURUSD fundamental swing trade short

9 Haz 2018

What points to USD strength fundamentally:

- Monetary policy: FED rate median is at 2.15% end of 2018 vs ECB expected to hike only 2019 Q4 -> carry on USD side
- CB balance sheet: FED BS decreasing since 2017 May, ECB still rising, tapering expected in '18 Sept
- Inflation: US Core inflation 2.1% and forecasted to 2.4% vs Eurozone 1.1% and moderate upward forecast

Cons:
- Citi WERM valuation: EUR undervalued by 20% (historically not outstanding)
- CitiFX Global Flows: Real Money got net EUR buyer in June

Risk-events ahead:
- US inflation - June 12
- FED rate decision (hike expected) - June 13
- ECB monetary policy meeting - June 14

12 Haz 2018

İşlem aktif

Openened position:
- US CPI figures above expectation
- FOMC might indicate 4 hikes instead of 3
- 64% of retail traders on the long side (myfxbook)

14 Haz 2018

İşlem elle kapatılmış

Closed @ 61.8 Fib retracement @ 1.1652 (0.68%)
- Entry was sh*tty, too early
- Closing OK, could apply trailing the slide
- Position size, ahead of risk events was smaller, also OK