Euro / ABD Doları
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EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0900 Ahead of Key Economic Events

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EUR/USD remains in a consolidation phase below 1.0900 in the European session on Monday, as traders exercise caution ahead of key economic data releases. The pair is navigating a narrow range as the market awaits the US Retail Sales data and the German parliamentary vote on fiscal reforms.

Technical outlook: Consolidation continues

EUR/USD is exhibiting signs of indecisiveness, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering slightly above 50 and the price fluctuating around the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. These technical signals suggest a lack of strong directional bias in the near term.

Key support levels:

1.0850 - 1.0860: Confluence of the 50-period SMA and the 200-week SMA, marking immediate downside support.
1.0800: A static and psychological round number level.
1.0730: Supported by the 200-day SMA, a critical longer-term trend indicator.

Key resistance levels:
1.0900: A strong psychological barrier and static resistance level.
1.0940: Static resistance from previous price action.
1.1000: A major round number and historical resistance level.

Fundamental factors affecting EUR/USD

US Retail Sales Data (February Release): Expected to rise by 0.7%, rebounding from a 0.9% contraction in January. A weaker-than-expected reading could weigh on the US Dollar (USD), while a stronger report may provide support.

Federal Reserve Meeting (March 19): Market participants are reluctant to take large positions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision. The current consensus expects the Fed to maintain rates at 4.5%, which aligns with the previous decision.

German Fiscal Reform Vote (March 18): The CDU/CSU, SPD, and Green Party will vote on a proposed fiscal package. The outcome could influence the Euro’s strength, depending on the market's perception of Germany’s fiscal outlook.

US Stock Market Sentiment: US equity futures are trading deep in negative territory early Monday, limiting EUR/USD’s potential upside.

Short-term price action and forecast
24-hour View: Following last week's sharp but brief rally to 1.0912, the pair closed higher at 1.0879. Current price movements indicate a range-trading phase between 1.0845 and 1.0910, suggesting continued consolidation.

1-3 Week Outlook: Analysts at UOB Group maintain a neutral stance, expecting EUR/USD to trade within a broader 1.0680 - 1.0950 range. While the recent rally has paused, there are no clear signs of a new directional trend.

Bias and Sentiment
The one-week market bias remains bearish, with 50% of forecasts predicting a decline and the rest expecting sideways movement. The absence of bullish sentiment indicates weak upward momentum, making it difficult for EUR/USD to break above 1.0900 without a strong catalyst.
The pair is likely to stay within a narrow range ahead of the US Retail Sales data and the Federal Reserve meeting. Support at 1.0850 holds near-term downside risks, with a break lower exposing 1.0800.

On the upside, 1.0900 remains the key resistance, and a sustained move above this level could pave the way toward 1.0940 - 1.1000.

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