Breakout! Possible new trend starting on the EURUSD

4 Eki 2021

See, people are not suddenly going to stop buying the USD because it's now a bit more obvious it is a ponzi scheme than before. It was already obvious before and they did not care and understand. It will slowly implode, with acceleration continuing (it started to accelerate in the early 2000s I think), now it is going about twice as fast as in the 2010s. Twice as fast, not 50 times as fast. And the euro is a scam too, with neither side (ECB/FED) wanting to fire first.

I really did not get the euro bulls. And they never had an explanation, just cryptic "I am certain", "you will see", "indicators". Ok so what am I seing now? Can I get an update? It's not going up.

It broke out, and the green candle stopped, it seems safe enough to consider investing in USD/EUR. It's possible to enter once the price drops below a certain level, and aim for at least 4 R, as I showed on the cover of this short idea. The price could trend for months but it's not worth to hold when there are giant corrections. It would be too simple. We have to take what we are given. It could go in a near straight line from 2R to 6R and that would be great, more than this is not very realistic. Of course let it breathe at least early on, it's bad and stupid to get out at 1R or when the price barely made a new low, the idea is the price continues down not "just retests the lows". An entry can be placed once the price consolidates for a few hours (it never just goes in a straight line). I posted a few weeks ago about entries not mattering anyway.

I think it will be interesting to watch this pair that has not done anything for the past months closely now. The next week and month could be important. More generally, not just the EURUSD, the next week and month could be very important, life changing...

4 Eki 2021

Not

BREAKING PONZI NEWS: BIDEN CANNOT GUARENTEE THE US WON'T DEFAULT ON OCTOBER 18.

Markets don't really care it seems. Congress should raise the cap as usual I guess. We'll see.

5 Eki 2021

Not

Price "this week" (in the very short term) is trending down, lower lows with 1HR candles. Just broke out of consolidation. Looking good for now. It could retrace 90% then go up (that little pullback does not look like an actual reversal) as well as make a slightly new low then shoot up.




Once the price got lower past a point I consider this a winner and start trailing. I am basically mostly a quant actually, not completely a quant, but heavily based on stats; but still here I do not have a precise price I mean it will be very visual.





I hope me no get stopped.
I have positions that take MONTHS, and have a VERY LOW winrate, and KEEP RETRACING, the suspense is unbearable, they can be extremely profitable but they are pure torture. I also have lots of realized losses that should get covered by unrealized gains but these keep testing my patience and can revert at any time even after waiting 2 months while they slowly trend my way.

So violent breakouts that give a quick few R's even just 3-4 in just 1 week really feels good. Hopefully I get 7-9R (or possibly up to 20 if I add and it keeps going but I won't dream), however a quick 4R would be great. These small ~5R here and there only serve to cover losses while the painful big uns are really the account growers.

Oh for noobs 7R, 9R, 12R all of this, maybe even adding to winner, I do not think it's a good idea. Just best to take rather safe trades and aim for 3,4,5 R. Anyway I do not see how it's even possible to aim for higher risk to rewards without thousands of hours of being a "quant" like how would someone know? It would just be gambling. And probably hard mentally for most people. Even Warren Buffett said go for fair P/E not cheap. Finding how to optimise entries, stops, exits takes years of work, and also comes with sacrificied winrate and missing out (getting stopped out of winners sometimes, that's the hardest).

And even with experience and everything I would never go for >15R for a rare few and >9R for most setups. I just do not see how this is possible. Nah it's just not. Statistically price does not stop in exact areas (.618 fib often but also very often a bit before or a bit past it) and every stat (hundreds) I made on holding winners with iron hands past a certain risk to reward resulted all the time (any sample of >10) in significantly destroyed profits, even turns into money losing not just reduced profit. I can't make stats on every possible combination every possible setup but anything I looked at said the same thing so...