In this chart you can see the major EUR/USD longterm downtrend. And as we can now see the Euro has come up to a major inflection point. Currencies turn over a longer period so we should still see 45-60 days of chopiness between 1.18-1.20. And then I'd give a 70 % Probability of the Euro going down against the dollar. Though most recently the (the last few days) the dollar has weakened more although still within the parameters of this trade. A weekly close could give more info on where the Euro is going.
For perspective check out the other ideas linked below.
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