KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUSD
(1 day, log scale)
-the April/May negative divergence worked out
-price was meeting resistance in June turned down as expected
-at the time, RSI was just slightly at overbought levels (I would prefer a larger RSI overbought reading for a start of an uptrend)
-we are seeing lower highs. The sequence of lower lows , however, was stopped at the target that I previously indicated (1.08)
- this recent upswing is even showing some bloody strength (as if Greece troubles would be over - NOT! )
- don't be surprised to see this leg up showing choppiness yet continued strength, until the long term trend line is once more touched. At such a point, however, I tend to expect the RSI not providing any evidence of a strong trend.
In other words: after some further choppiness, the longer term trend will take over again. Since 1.08 held recently, the first target must be set to that level again. (That is not to say 1.05 or possibly even parity are out of the window, it's just that those levels are a tad less likely for now - we need a clear break of 1.08 for that to come into play. It could happen fast, though, once markets realize that "the Greece issue" is FAR from over - even worse: the Greece issue is getting bigger by the day. We just won't admit it).
(1 day, log scale)
-the April/May negative divergence worked out
-price was meeting resistance in June turned down as expected
-at the time, RSI was just slightly at overbought levels (I would prefer a larger RSI overbought reading for a start of an uptrend)
-we are seeing lower highs. The sequence of lower lows , however, was stopped at the target that I previously indicated (1.08)
- this recent upswing is even showing some bloody strength (as if Greece troubles would be over - NOT! )
- don't be surprised to see this leg up showing choppiness yet continued strength, until the long term trend line is once more touched. At such a point, however, I tend to expect the RSI not providing any evidence of a strong trend.
In other words: after some further choppiness, the longer term trend will take over again. Since 1.08 held recently, the first target must be set to that level again. (That is not to say 1.05 or possibly even parity are out of the window, it's just that those levels are a tad less likely for now - we need a clear break of 1.08 for that to come into play. It could happen fast, though, once markets realize that "the Greece issue" is FAR from over - even worse: the Greece issue is getting bigger by the day. We just won't admit it).
