EURUSD Strategic Outlook 2025: 0.9000 end of year target

24 Ara 2024

🔸It's time to update the EURUSD outlook, this is weekly price chart, downtrend is well defined since 2012 and we recently got a strong rejection after distribution

🔸Based on technical outlook, EURUSD is set to hit 0.95 by summer 2025 and end the year at 0.9000. I don't see any upside beyond 1.05 in 2025.

🔸The key reason for further decline in EURUSD: Strong DXY, strong political leadership and weak political leadership in EU / weak economy. Below there is a summary of why EU zone is set to decline further based on fundies.

🔸Slow Economic Growth: The Eurozone has faced relatively sluggish economic growth compared to other regions. Factors like low productivity growth, weak domestic demand, and a high dependency on exports to slower-growing markets (such as China) contribute to this. Slow growth impacts investor sentiment and reduces the demand for the Euro.

🔸Demographic Issues: The Eurozone is dealing with an aging population, particularly in countries like Germany, Italy, and Spain. This demographic shift results in a shrinking labor force and increasing pressure on social services and pension systems, which weakens economic growth potential.

🔸High Energy Prices and Inflation: The Eurozone has been significantly impacted by energy price fluctuations, particularly following the geopolitical tensions related to Russia and Ukraine. High energy costs put a strain on businesses and consumers, eroding purchasing power and dampening economic activity. Additionally, inflation remains a challenge in many Eurozone countries, complicating the ECB's ability to stimulate growth without triggering further inflation.

🔸Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing war in Ukraine, energy disruptions, and broader geopolitical risks have hurt European economies more severely than other regions. The Eurozone's reliance on Russian energy made it especially vulnerable to supply shocks, and the economic sanctions against Russia created ripple effects that continue to affect the region.

🔸Structural Issues in the Eurozone: The Eurozone faces structural challenges such as uneven economic conditions between member states, fiscal constraints (due to the Eurozone's common monetary policy), and a lack of fiscal unity. While Germany and France may have relatively strong economies, countries like Italy and Greece still struggle with high debt levels and low growth, which can drag down overall Eurozone performance.

🔸Tight Fiscal Policies: The EU's fiscal rules restrict how much debt individual member states can take on, which limits governments' ability to use fiscal stimulus to respond to crises. This can exacerbate economic stagnation and prevent the region from achieving sustainable growth.

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