EURUSD 1 May 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - US FOMC/Powell Day!

1 May

This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:

1. Market Sentiment
   
2. 4H Chart Analysis
   
3. 15m Chart Analysis
   

Market Sentiment

A day the markets awaits loaded with high impact news events. Starting with US ADP, Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings and ending with Rate Decision and Powell speech.

Today's FOMC Statement and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech are eagerly anticipated by the market, as both have the potential to significantly influence the EUR/USD pair. The Dollar Index has advanced as investor focus shifts to these pivotal events. Should the FOMC statement or Powell's comments lean towards a more hawkish stance, indicating a preference for higher interest rates, it could bolster the US dollar and exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Conversely, if the statement or remarks lean towards a more dovish stance, suggesting a inclination towards lower interest rates, it could weaken the US dollar and generate some upward movement for the EUR/USD pair.


4H Chart Analysis

https://www.tradingview.com/x/wqQAxP2O/

1.

• Swing Bearish
  
• Internal Bearish
  

2.

• Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
  

3.

• No clear Demand zone available to initiate the INT Structure Pullback.
  
• Price could continue bearish without Pullback as we are in the Swing Continuation Phase.
  
• Expectation is set to continue bearish targeting the Weak Swing Low.
  

4.

• With the recent INT Structure turning Bearish confirming the Swing Pullback Phase may had ended, the Swing Bearish Continuation Phase started targeting the Weak Swing Low.
  
• Current 4H Supply (FLIP Zone) could provide an opportunity for Shorts after the Bearish iBOS inline with the Bearish Swing and Continuation Phase.
  
• Also be mindful that today is loaded with high impact news which will have a high volatility.
  

15m Chart Analysis

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Pl0GeKXJ/

1.

• Swing Bearish
  
• OF Bearish
  

2.

• Swing continuing Bearish with Bearish BOS.
  
• After a BOS we expect a pullback.
  
• There is no HTF Zone that can be potential for the Swing Pullback Phase.
  
• Will wait for INT Structure to turn Bullish to look for Longs. Otherwise i prefer Shorts from the 4H Supply as it aligns with the HTF Bearish Phase and targets.
  

3.

• No Clear Demand to initiate the Swing Pullback.
  
• Waiting for INT Structure formation.