EUR/USD Set to Challenge Record Lows?
With just two days remaining before the ECB meeting, where another rate cut is anticipated, I conducted a technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair to gain a clearer understanding of potential price movements in the future.
My analysis focuses on the 4-hour (4H), daily (1D), weekly (1W), and monthly (1M) timeframes. Notably, the charts indicate a healthy bearish trend.
The first chart illustrates the 1M timeframe, where the resistance line of the descending channel has successfully rejected the price, preventing it from exceeding the 100-period moving average (MA100) at approximately 1.1200. Furthermore, the price has broken below the significant support line of the 50-period moving average (MA50), causing it to retreat into a neutral rectangle within this long-standing descending channel, which began in August 2008 with the U.S. Bank Rescue Plan. The next critical support level on the 1M chart is at 1.0560, marking the bottom of the neutral rectangle. A breach of this support would likely pave the way for the USD to gain strength against the Euro.
As mentioned earlier, the 4H chart clearly shows a prevailing bearish trend. This trend started on September 30, 2024, supported by two significant indicators: the formation of a death cross and the recent breach of the psychological benchmark at 1.0900, with prices now targeting 1.0800.
Looking again at the 1M chart, it is noteworthy that the five preceding lower highs resulted in declines of 20% to 25%. Based on my analysis, we appear to be at another lower high, which could potentially lead the price to challenge record lows.
My analysis focuses on the 4-hour (4H), daily (1D), weekly (1W), and monthly (1M) timeframes. Notably, the charts indicate a healthy bearish trend.
The first chart illustrates the 1M timeframe, where the resistance line of the descending channel has successfully rejected the price, preventing it from exceeding the 100-period moving average (MA100) at approximately 1.1200. Furthermore, the price has broken below the significant support line of the 50-period moving average (MA50), causing it to retreat into a neutral rectangle within this long-standing descending channel, which began in August 2008 with the U.S. Bank Rescue Plan. The next critical support level on the 1M chart is at 1.0560, marking the bottom of the neutral rectangle. A breach of this support would likely pave the way for the USD to gain strength against the Euro.
As mentioned earlier, the 4H chart clearly shows a prevailing bearish trend. This trend started on September 30, 2024, supported by two significant indicators: the formation of a death cross and the recent breach of the psychological benchmark at 1.0900, with prices now targeting 1.0800.
Looking again at the 1M chart, it is noteworthy that the five preceding lower highs resulted in declines of 20% to 25%. Based on my analysis, we appear to be at another lower high, which could potentially lead the price to challenge record lows.
Feragatname
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