EURUSD FutureX

11 Mar

I know you want a flag or a breakout or an indicator to tell you where the price might go. Even if I would come up with it I would immediately ask myself what is the risk reward for this setup and what is the PROBABILITY? This simple magic trio of mathematics is the cornerstone of any profitable approach in the markets, yet people don't even understand the concept of mathematical advantage or edge in the context of professional gambling in financial markets.

Currencies move because of fundamentals, because of central banks, because of geopolitics, politics, and more. Professionals fine tune their prediction models with complex statistical analysis and mathematical models using advanced calculus. Or at least that's my humble understanding of the situation. :) Back to the drawing board.

This is a setup derived from some simulated projections of what could happen, how it might happen, and most importantly when it might happen. The main scenario highlighted with the dots is not set in stone, although I must admit, I feel at least one of the data points will be hit in spectacular fashion. Most importantly, I have attached to this snapshot a grid made of zones and squares to serve as milestones or reference elements in order to chip in as we stroll along into the future with perspectives, potential predictions, but also estimations of probabilities.

As the path suggests, I expect the price to create another high (not precisely sure when) before looking in the mirror to ask what on earth is going on and where it might go. I also expect a zone of relative stagnation or consolidation and maybe reduced volatility. At the Exclamation part this is a milestone of a potential point in time where a shift in sentiment or mood or volatility might occur so grab your volatility indicators when we reach it if you want to have a closer look at what might occur in the next steps of the future. The end of the project is left with a little game of choice or predictions or at least probability assignments for the zones (in case we are even close to them by that time).

While my hope is to at least surprise the observer with the coincidences of the future relative to the elements in the project, I also provide this model as a platform for suggestions, ideas, bias or even banter and trolling. Feel free to drop a comment with anything that suits your present needs. I will try and make the time to post my own probability assessments with price levels.

We start the project with 2 bearish candles (last one not over yet) and the idea previously mentioned that I still feel there might be room for higher highs eventually. not a number (nan) zone would be a surprise if it is penetrated so let's take it from here and see how the projections compare to the reality that will unfold on us.

25 Mar

Not

nan zone narrowly avoided and this pivot in this position could turn out to be an actual reversal with a bull wave follow up of more than 100 pips. Probability estimation 43%. We actually need less than 30% for a long position to make sense from a math point of view. Currently trading at 1.0835, low ~1.08, potential target 1.096, flexible and with early partial exit on the table.

3 Nis

Not

0-1-2 in the making? I might be wrong on this one. Never thought we would see it inside the nan so not sure if my input on this would be more relevant than the snapshot itself which should still deliver at least a small interesting surprise.

22 Nis

Not

After a bounce from the top edge of the 1 zone pit stop at the nan text. I have no bias for this one from this position. One scenario that pops out more intriguing than others is a nan-3-6 sequence if the bulls manage to push this out from this position.

3 May

Not

Resistance, consolidation, and a break at the bottom level of the 3 zone. We might see an incursion towards the colored parts of the project. Let's just hope it's not a Fibonacci sequence as I don't have a 13 in the project, unless the 13 is the only dot that will be hit in spectacular fashion as the initial idea mentioned.

7 May

Not

1nan3 sequence completed with 3 candlestick shadows on the up with the recent high. Looks like resistance, acts as resistance, but if I was a bear biased trader I wouldn't necessarily start shorting in this position. The price might find support eventually and even try to push higher. As of now I see a higher probability for a 888 or 5 than a bigger drop to 6.

9 May

Not

The support previously mentioned in the comment was found right at the bottom edge of the 3 zone with a decent rebound for today. we could see the 5 zone touched eventually.

15 May

Not

Will the lower edge of the 4 zone act as a powerful resistance? Probably not, but this can still visit the 5 zone eventually. Overall, it needs to keep staying bullish in order for one icon to be hit.

17 May

Not

Resistance met at the 4 zone. Could find support near 888 if it gets there.

24 May

Not

Support found at the 888 as previously mentioned. I am a little bit bullish biased for EURUSD, thinking it might reach the M (13) zone, BUT, I am reluctant to re-entry long here in this position because I am not convinced it is the end of the potential correction. At the same time, this can jump to 1.095 and hit the green icon before the exclamation mark.

31 May

Not

The second rebound from the 888 level coinciding with the bottom edge of the 5 could solidify the case for further bullish developments into the 7 and maybe even triple X. I am still hoping one Icon will be hit in spectacular fashion as initially mentioned. I am still liking the M zone (13).

4 Haz

Not

A more detailed view on the 4h chart where the price action at the edges of the zones is more clear. After the encountered resistence at the 4 zone, finally a break on the up at its end. Currently in the Blank space between 4 5 and 7 where the Exclamation Sign Icon stands. This could be just a retest of the previous support/resistance level, but even if it goes back into the 5 area, the overall bullish sentiment can still hold...

12 Haz

Not

Big inflection point at the time stamp with the exclamation sign icon and while we are finally in 7 zone territory, the dip inside the 6 what somewhat of a surprise, even though not uncommon for some, considering the EU zone election results and unfolding of events. Not sure if the xxx scenario still holds, considering it looks like it wants to check all the boxes. are 8 and 9 next?

13 Haz

Not

this might need to avoid the 10 zone in order to make mathematical sense. we had a hit on the nan and a hit on the 888 texts. a trifecta with another 999 or xxx would be absolutely horrible. Hopefully this was just a random walk of potentials instead of an intelligent design. Election reaction made a mess of things so will stay away from any predictions or estimations for now...

5 Tem

Not

Looking for a hit in the 9 zone for an almost complete straight in this poker journey, although the 2 was narrowly missed. The purple 888 zone acted as resistance on the top until it was broken.

31 Tem

Not

9 zone penetration confirmed after the rebound from the plank under the xxx zone. No dots were hit in this experiment and no Fibonacci sequence occurred although the zones with sequential numbers have actually been penetrated. under the yellow shut down button not sure if this means the bears are about to drop this like it's hot as I am not ready to close my remaining fraction of a short but I might be wrong on this one. The P in snooP doggy dog looks to be a winner but this is mostly a joke.

31 Tem

Not

End projects