As of late May, the single currency has been confined to a tight range comprised of a resistance area plotted at 1.1717-1.1862 and a trend line support (etched from the low 1.0340). Areas outside of this border to keep eyeballs on fall in at the 2018 yearly opening level drawn from 1.2004 (resistance), and support pencilled in at 1.1461.
Daily perspective:
Supply at 1.1790-1.1732, an area clearly of interest in this market at the moment, steered the unit lower on Thursday in reasonably strong fashion. As a result of this, traders likely have their crosshairs fixed on nearby support coming in at 1.1575 this week, a level which boasts strong history dating as far back as May 2016. Beyond here, as you can see on the daily timeframe, the next area of interest comes in around weekly support mentioned above at 1.1461.
H4 perspective:
Early trade on Friday witnessed a continuation of selling enter the market, though swiftly came to end after the H4 candles bottomed on lower-than-expected US GDP (q/q) data. EUR/USD bulls went on the offensive from lows of 1.1620, concluding the day topping just south of July’s opening level at 1.1675 (1.1664).
Areas of consideration:
As a result of Friday’s movement, H4 price appears free to cross swords with trend line support (taken from the low 1.1508) and the nearby 1.16 handle. Our rationale behind this approach comes from seeing H4 demand around the 1.1626-1.1673 area marked with a green arrow being consumed (blue line denotes the lower edge of the said demand).
With action on the H4 scale potentially free to move lower, the idea going forward is to seek shorting opportunities off July’s opening line at 1.1675, targeting the aforementioned trend line support/1.16 handle (see pink arrows).
The only drawback to a sell in this market, of course, is the current weekly trend line support. To help overcome this, traders are urged to wait and see if H4 price can chalk up a full or near-full-bodied bearish candle off 1.1675 prior to pulling the trigger. This will not guarantee a winning trade but it will show active sellers have interest in the region.
Today’s data points: German prelim CPI m/m; Spanish flash CPI y/y.
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