EURUSD: Good point to evaluate the weekly direction!

8 Oca

On EUR/USD, there's noticeable buying interest, with the pair rebounding from multi-week lows at 1.0876 to settle around 1.0948, marking a modest 0.09% increase. During Thursday's European trading hours, EUR/USD gained ground but struggled to extend its recovery later in the day due to rising U.S. Treasury bond yields, supporting the Dollar (USD). The initial improvement in risk sentiment made it challenging for the USD to find demand on Thursday. However, after the ADP Employment Change report for December came in at 164,000, exceeding market expectations of 115,000, the yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond rose above 4%, helping the USD limit its losses. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the U.S. are expected to rise by 170,000 in December, following a higher-than-expected increase of 199,000 in November. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a 65% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the policy rate by 25 basis points in March, down from 85% at the beginning of the week. My personal expectation for today and possibly in the absence of movement in the coming days, I expect the price to drop below 1.088 to collect liquidity before bouncing towards 1.102 or a second scenario I personally consider less likely, a direct short towards 1.081. Happy trading everyone, from Nicola.