EUR: PMIs and ECB speakers in focus
Abating concerns on Middle East tensions are positive for the pro-cyclical euro, although that also lowers the chances that higher oil prices will force a delay of the European Central Bank's cutting cycle. Market pricing for total 2024 easing is firming up at 75bp, which is also our call.
Substantial data or market events may be needed to force a major repricing of ECB rate expectations at this point, and this week’s activity surveys in the eurozone may not really move the needle. PMIs are out on Wednesday and are expected to improve marginally despite the manufacturing gauge continuing to act as a major drag. On Thursday, all eyes will be on the IFO reads for Germany, where consensus is also looking for a modest increase. On Friday, the ECB will publish the results of CPI inflation expectation surveys for March, where the three-year gauge should inch lower and endorse the ECB’s dovish shift.
Today, ECB President Christine Lagarde will give a lecture at Yale University, and may not touch upon current monetary policy issues. Still, the week is full of scheduled speeches by ECB members from all sides of the dovish/hawkish spectrum, from the dovish Fabio Panetta and Mario Centeno to the hawkish Joachim Nagel and Isabel Schnabel. We’ll be interested to see whether latest geopolitical developments will translate into some resistance to easing from the hawks.
EUR/USD could stay on a holding pattern until key US data start to flow in from Thursday. There is probably room for a small rebound, but monetary policy divergence continues to point to downside risks, and a re-test of 1.0600 could already be triggered later this week if US data comes in strong.
Substantial data or market events may be needed to force a major repricing of ECB rate expectations at this point, and this week’s activity surveys in the eurozone may not really move the needle. PMIs are out on Wednesday and are expected to improve marginally despite the manufacturing gauge continuing to act as a major drag. On Thursday, all eyes will be on the IFO reads for Germany, where consensus is also looking for a modest increase. On Friday, the ECB will publish the results of CPI inflation expectation surveys for March, where the three-year gauge should inch lower and endorse the ECB’s dovish shift.
Today, ECB President Christine Lagarde will give a lecture at Yale University, and may not touch upon current monetary policy issues. Still, the week is full of scheduled speeches by ECB members from all sides of the dovish/hawkish spectrum, from the dovish Fabio Panetta and Mario Centeno to the hawkish Joachim Nagel and Isabel Schnabel. We’ll be interested to see whether latest geopolitical developments will translate into some resistance to easing from the hawks.
EUR/USD could stay on a holding pattern until key US data start to flow in from Thursday. There is probably room for a small rebound, but monetary policy divergence continues to point to downside risks, and a re-test of 1.0600 could already be triggered later this week if US data comes in strong.
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