9.6 EURUSD Daily Review & Outlook
9.6 Monday (US Labours Day), for the past 24 hours:
• EURUSD has risen 9 pips against the previous day close; hit target set yesterday, but failed to test 1.1923 strong resistance.
• ↑ 43.1 pips High & Low extreme move, vs. 47.5 pips of 22 day Average Range. Consider NFP's average volatility, this is a very small range movement, plus the failure of test high resistance area, I would consider these are negative signs for buyers, though up burst after NFP released.
Strength (0~10) Comparison:
• USD in early session MEDIUM 3.9 -> 4.0 MEDIUM of late session
• EUR in early session MEDIUM 4.0 -> 1.9 WEAK of late session
Market Focus & Moods:
• Far worse NFP send USD low, which is right, two PMIs after were similar as expected. Which suggest job demand has been suppressed by Covid-Delta wave. The movement after NFP, centre has been lower than expected plus resistance hold EURUSD in a narrow range, all this should be put on your price radar before buyers confirmed a further movement. I won't be surprised if one or two day spike up, but difficult to believe further momentum to go higher. Esp. CoT report shows non-commercial net positions kept shrinking.
• Monday, soft econ. data, 8:30am European Construction PMIs;
Next Step:
• Due to above facts, I expect a range movement:
- Resistances 1st 1.1895-1.1900, 2nd 1.1923(strong);
- Support at 1st 1.1865, 2nd 1.1850, 3rd 1.1830 (strong);
- Close around 1.1895 ~ 1.1870 area.
• EURUSD has risen 9 pips against the previous day close; hit target set yesterday, but failed to test 1.1923 strong resistance.
• ↑ 43.1 pips High & Low extreme move, vs. 47.5 pips of 22 day Average Range. Consider NFP's average volatility, this is a very small range movement, plus the failure of test high resistance area, I would consider these are negative signs for buyers, though up burst after NFP released.
Strength (0~10) Comparison:
• USD in early session MEDIUM 3.9 -> 4.0 MEDIUM of late session
• EUR in early session MEDIUM 4.0 -> 1.9 WEAK of late session
Market Focus & Moods:
• Far worse NFP send USD low, which is right, two PMIs after were similar as expected. Which suggest job demand has been suppressed by Covid-Delta wave. The movement after NFP, centre has been lower than expected plus resistance hold EURUSD in a narrow range, all this should be put on your price radar before buyers confirmed a further movement. I won't be surprised if one or two day spike up, but difficult to believe further momentum to go higher. Esp. CoT report shows non-commercial net positions kept shrinking.
• Monday, soft econ. data, 8:30am European Construction PMIs;
Next Step:
• Due to above facts, I expect a range movement:
- Resistances 1st 1.1895-1.1900, 2nd 1.1923(strong);
- Support at 1st 1.1865, 2nd 1.1850, 3rd 1.1830 (strong);
- Close around 1.1895 ~ 1.1870 area.
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