The global recovery… they think it’s all over… - ING

*EUR/JPY is typically correlated with the global economic cycle. The recent drop to 130 from 134 therefore begs the question whether the global recovery is over, and we are instead waiting for central banks to start turning dovish in response to slowdown fears? That seems very wide of the mark unless one has a conviction view that we are heading into a recession.

*We do not hold that view and instead see the recent EUR/JPY dip as a correction and retain a view of a move to 140 next year.

*A big part of this view rests on the Eurozone playing its part in the global recovery. We need to see hard data delivering on bullish survey data – and our macro team is confident of 4%+ EZ growth.