EURJPY Technical and fundamental.
Ascending broadening wedge is under construction where Intermediate wave (5) is still to be completed.
The price have challenged a downward trend channel, also functioned as correctional minute waves for impulse wave (3) and minute wave ((v)). Price wins this time over the trend channel, and a break is confirmed, while a pullback to testing the trend channel could lead the price to break the wedge and also break the 0.618 fibonacci level, where price could continue further to 120.000.
Meanwhile i expect a strong momentum for a EUR upside against the Yen, where a test of support line in the wedge at 129.500 will likely have more chance to be tested than the 120 level.
in that statement, i have considered the weak yen policy the BOJ is trying to run, while this won't work at the USD/JPY pair, because of the focus on this subject by the Trump administration that won't allow a weaker yen against the dollar. This is also understandable why the trump administration won't allow it, as the Japanese exports difference between the us and the eu is 22,31% where most of the exports from japan is to the US. This is good for the American consumers but bad for the trade balance deficit for the US, as it can increase with a cheaper Yen. while a lower exchange rate between USD/JPY can increase the exports from US to Japan.
Japan Import difference between EU and the US is 28,8% where EU are the big winners with stronger Euro against the Yen, and therefore Japanese consumers need to pay more for goods and services from the EU than the US.
This could also be bad for Eu, as the trade balance deficit against Japan could increase as japans products will be cheaper and therefore create more export to Eu and less import from Eu to Japan.
The differences between import and export to the us is 49,6%.
Where the difference for the Euro zone is 8,8% to the export side. Making the US trade balance with Japan -49,6% and only -8,8% for EU. The Trade deficit to Japan from EU haven't run out of hands yet, and therefore i consider that EU is not concerned for now.
Meanwhile US trade deficit to Japan is out of hands, and therefore have the Trump administration thinking of this issue.
The price have challenged a downward trend channel, also functioned as correctional minute waves for impulse wave (3) and minute wave ((v)). Price wins this time over the trend channel, and a break is confirmed, while a pullback to testing the trend channel could lead the price to break the wedge and also break the 0.618 fibonacci level, where price could continue further to 120.000.
Meanwhile i expect a strong momentum for a EUR upside against the Yen, where a test of support line in the wedge at 129.500 will likely have more chance to be tested than the 120 level.
in that statement, i have considered the weak yen policy the BOJ is trying to run, while this won't work at the USD/JPY pair, because of the focus on this subject by the Trump administration that won't allow a weaker yen against the dollar. This is also understandable why the trump administration won't allow it, as the Japanese exports difference between the us and the eu is 22,31% where most of the exports from japan is to the US. This is good for the American consumers but bad for the trade balance deficit for the US, as it can increase with a cheaper Yen. while a lower exchange rate between USD/JPY can increase the exports from US to Japan.
Japan Import difference between EU and the US is 28,8% where EU are the big winners with stronger Euro against the Yen, and therefore Japanese consumers need to pay more for goods and services from the EU than the US.
This could also be bad for Eu, as the trade balance deficit against Japan could increase as japans products will be cheaper and therefore create more export to Eu and less import from Eu to Japan.
The differences between import and export to the us is 49,6%.
Where the difference for the Euro zone is 8,8% to the export side. Making the US trade balance with Japan -49,6% and only -8,8% for EU. The Trade deficit to Japan from EU haven't run out of hands yet, and therefore i consider that EU is not concerned for now.
Meanwhile US trade deficit to Japan is out of hands, and therefore have the Trump administration thinking of this issue.
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